Michael Saylor (Michael Saylor) once again sparked market speculation on October 4th: after releasing a new chart showing the accumulation of his holdings, Strategy may have bought even more Bitcoin. The last confirmed holding size of that company was 847,666 Bitcoins.
Saylor's post on October 4th hinted at the possibility of further purchases, but did not confirm that the company had undertaken a new round of Bitcoin buying.
CryptoQuant reports that since July, the spot Bitcoin ETF holdings in the United States have increased by approximately 88,000 Bitcoins.
The current trading price of Bitcoin is close to $85,250, which means that the average purchase cost of Strategy at $75,437 per coin is still lower than the current market price.
On Sunday, Saylor captioned the post saying, "Oranger than ever before" ( More orange than ever ), and attached a Bitcoin purchase chart from Strategy. This information does not disclose the quantity purchased, the transaction date, or the price; therefore, based solely on the content of this post, it cannot be confirmed that the company has made a new increase in its holdings.
Calculated at the current Bitcoin price, the market value of this portion of holdings has clearly increased. CoinGecko data shows that on October 4th, the Bitcoin price was close to $85,250, with a 24-hour increase of about 0.5%, and the intraday fluctuation range was approximately from $84,572 to $85,401.
Calculated at this market price, the 847,666 bitcoins held by Strategy are worth nearly $72.3 billion. Based on this estimate, their market value is about $8.3 billion higher than the company's disclosed total purchase cost of $63.95 billion, although this figure will change as the price of bitcoin continues to fluctuate.
Saylor's wording this time is similar to the signals he sent out over the previous weekend. Media updates from Strategy show that he had previously posted messages saying "even more orange" ( Even more orange ), which coincided with the company's recent Bitcoin updates. Subsequently, Strategy revealed that he bought 1,665 Bitcoins on September 28th.
However, a similar pattern of posting does not necessarily indicate that new purchases will be disclosed after the post on October 4th. As of Sunday, there were no updated documents from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) revealing additional Bitcoin purchases.
Strategy still has several billion dollars available under its stock plan.
Strategy's most recent purchase was funded by selling ordinary shares of MSTR.
As shown in the documents, as of September 27th, under the plan for MSTR of Strategy to be issued at market price ( at-the-market ), there is still $18.84 billion available for issuance and sale. Additionally, the other available quotas are: $17.51 billion for STRC, $4.01 billion for STRD, $2.1 billion for STRK, and $1.62 billion for STRF.
Since July, Bitcoin ETF holdings have risen along with the price.
Analyst Amr Taha stated that the US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings have increased from approximately 1.2 million bitcoins on July 1 to around 1.288 million bitcoins on October 4.
According to this analyst, this change is equivalent to an increase of nearly 88,000 Bitcoins, representing a growth of 7.3%. During the same period, the price of Bitcoin rose from around $59,500 to around $85,000, an increase of nearly 43%.
Taha indicates that while prices are rising, the number of bitcoins held by ETF is also continuously increasing. However, these data do not prove how much of this upward trend is driven by the demand from ETF. Over these three months, the growth rate of ETF's holdings has been lower than the increase in bitcoin prices.
Recent Bitcoin analysis focusing on the $82,000 support level also indicates that after entering October, both the inflow of ETF funds and corporate buying are factors on the demand side. However, it is also mentioned that neither of these can guarantee that prices will continue to rise.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju holds a more optimistic view of the current cycle. According to the comments discussed by CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan, Ju indicates that he believes the bear market for Bitcoin "has ended this summer" and that the market is in the early stages of a new cycle.
The analyst's report indicates that the capital inflow into cumulative addresses is stronger, there has been a reduction in sales by established whales, and the current MVRV indicator is not as extreme as in previous cycles. The claim by Ju that Bitcoin could rise 3 to 5 times from this cycle's low point is still just a prediction, and it cannot be used to determine at what level Bitcoin will trade next.
Whether there will be a new round of purchases for Strategy still needs to be confirmed.
Strategy has not yet disclosed whether it purchased Bitcoin after September 27th, or how much was purchased.
In light of the company's recent consistent practices, the next official disclosure will provide the most definitive answer. A document submitted on September 28 stated that Strategy will use the company's website dashboard as a channel for information disclosure based on Regulation FD to publish information regarding Bitcoin purchases, holdings, securities prices, and other company details.
