According to CryptoQuant, the current unrealized profit margin for short-term Bitcoin holders is around 33%, which is the highest since December 2024.
On September 22nd, these holders also realized a profit of 25,700 BTC, setting a new record for the highest single-day profit in 2026.
This warning appeared after Bitcoin briefly rose to near $87,400, hitting an eight-month high, before then falling back. CryptoQuant still believes that BTC is in a bull market, with a bull market rating index of 90 out of 100, which is considered "extremely bullish." However, the increase in profit levels also means that the potential seller group is expanding.
Bitcoin's rebound is creating its own selling pressure.
The issue is not just that Bitcoin holders are in a profitable position. As long as the new demand is strong enough, a strong bull market can usually absorb the profits and bring things to a close.
Risks arise when the supply available for sale increases, while demand begins to weaken.
CryptoQuant indicates that the demand for spot Bitcoin has recently contracted, and the growth in futures activity has also slowed down. This makes the current profit margin of 33% for short-term holders even more important: as marginal buying interest among traders seems to be cooling down, there is a strong incentive to lock in profits.
Bitcoin has struggled to remain above the $85,000 to $87,000 range, and the rising yields on U.S. Treasury bonds have added another layer of resistance. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries recently surpassed 5%, putting BTC in a dilemma between improving sentiment in the crypto market and a more severe macroeconomic backdrop, which has already been mentioned in the latest Bitcoin outlooks.
ETF The buying side is still absorbing supply.
However, there is still an important counterweight to the selling pressure risk.
US spot Bitcoin ETF attracted approximately $2.39 billion in net inflows last week, with nearly $1 billion in a single day. Even though BTC has fallen from recent highs, this round of ETF buying continues.
This week, the momentum of capital inflows continued, although the daily demand has significantly slowed down to around $31 million, indicating that institutions are continuing to increase their holdings, but not at the rapid pace of last week. Therefore, if short-term holders accelerate their profit-taking, the flow of funds for ETF may become crucial.
Maya Bennett
Maya Bennett is a financial journalist with experience reporting on cryptocurrencies, stocks, and broader market trends. Her areas of focus include Bitcoin, major digital assets, the stock market, monetary policy, as well as economic developments that influence investor sentiment. She is adept at transforming rapidly changing market news into clear and concise reports.
