Foreign media reports that Grayscale believes Bitcoin prices may remain in a bear market until September or October. The firm's assessment is based on Bitcoin's performance in past cycles and emphasizes that current market conditions are more influenced by the macroeconomic environment.

The four-year cycle is still a reference.

Grayscale stated that historically, Bitcoin bear markets typically bottom out about a year after the cycle peak, with an average retracement of nearly 80%. Based on this pattern, the current phase may still require a longer period of digestion.

Macroeconomic factors are receiving more attention

The agency also pointed out that Bitcoin is no longer solely driven by halvings and cycles. Whether the US economy remains resilient and whether the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates will influence whether the price has bottomed out.

Determining the bottom still depends on the environment.

Grayscale believes that if the US economy remains stable and monetary policy does not tighten further, Bitcoin may have already reached a temporary bottom. However, if macroeconomic pressures persist, the market recovery period could be prolonged.