XRP is approaching another major supply event, and Ripple is preparing to conduct a managed release on November 1st, which could put 1 billion tokens into a releasable state. However, this cryptocurrency still struggles to return above $1.40.

As of October 25th, each XRP is priced at around $1.30. Based on the planned release, the nominal value is approximately $1.3 billion. However, this does not mean that Ripple intends to sell all of its holdings, nor does it imply that the additional $1.3 billion worth of XRP will immediately enter the exchange.

Ripple Unlocked or released $1.3 billion on November 1st XRP

According to the XRP custody tracker, among the two custody objects held by Ripple, there are a total of 1 billion XRP. It is planned that these will become releasable on November 1st at 00:00 UTC.

As shown by this tracker, as of October 25th, the managed account controlled by Ripple still holds approximately 31.4 billion XRP.

Ripple initially established a custody system in December 2017, locking 55 billion XRP tokens within contracts, with the aim of making the company's token distribution more predictable.

As initially disclosed by Ripple, this mechanism allows for a maximum release of 1 billion XRP tokens per month, and any unused tokens will be reintroduced into the new custodial contract.

This difference has always been at the core of previous Ripple unlocking events. Related events often trigger a large amount of trading news, but they do not necessarily lead to a similar scale of selling activity.

Recent records provide useful background information.

On October 1st, Ripple released 1 billion XRP, and then put 700 million of them back into custody, resulting in a net reduction of 300 million XRP in its locked balance.

The same pattern occurred in September as well. On-chain tracking shows that over the past 12 months, Ripple has on average re-hosted about 70% of its monthly releases.

Calculated at the current price, the historical reduction of 300 million XRP is equivalent to approximately $390 million. However, even so, it should not be mistakenly assumed to be sales from confirmed exchanges.

Why is the price of XRP still under pressure below $1.40?

On October 25th, the trading price of XRP was around $1.30, failing to maintain a rebound towards $1.40 earlier this week.

Historical market data shows that the token once rose to around $1.40 on October 21, before falling back to around $1.30 by October 24.

As this cryptocurrency weakens, investors are paying attention to the exchange balances, institutional demand, and the remaining supply commitments of Ripple.

Previous analyses regarding XRP's holdings emphasized the company's large quantity of stock, while another breakdown of the custody details explained why the locked balances have been continuously declining.

Regular hosting events do not create new XRP. The total initial supply of this cryptocurrency was generated upon its launch; therefore, these releases change the availability of existing tokens, rather than increasing the maximum supply.

Will the unlocking in November push XRP below $1.25?

If XRP continues to fall below $1.25, the short-term technical outlook will weaken, and the psychological barrier of $1.20 may come into focus.

On the contrary, if prices rebound above $1.37 to $1.40, market sentiment could improve, opening the possibility of a move towards $1.50.

Neither of these two outcomes will be automatically determined by the arrangements of Ripple, as these arrangements have been publicly known for many years.

Investors are still paying attention to the Swell conference from October 27th to 29th. Ripple will discuss institutional payments, tokenization, and blockchain infrastructure with large financial institutions at the conference.

Coinpaper mentioned in the preview of Swell that BNY, ICE, TD Securities, and Robinhood will be participating in it.

At the same time, the continuously expanding financing business of RLUSD by Ripple indicates that, despite the weak price of XRP, its broader business activities are still progressing.

XRP Ledger also faces another upgrade node on November 4th, but still requires continuous approval from validators.