If you've received a raise in the past two years, then almost all of that increase has been eroded by inflation.

This further indicates that the issue of affordability in the U.S. economy has not disappeared. It also means that, after adjusting for inflation, the average hourly wage, which had risen after Donald Trump took office in January 2025, has now returned to its starting point.

Federal statistics show that in January 2025, the average hourly wage in the United States was $35.84; adjusted for inflation, this is equivalent to $37.79 today. The average hourly wage last month was $37.81, with virtually no change over the past 20 months.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report on Wednesday, which exceeded expectations with prices rising 3.7% year-on-year in September. Economists had previously forecasted a rise of 3.6%, and this increase is also significantly higher than the 3.4% seen in August.

Economists at BNP Paribas ( BNP Paribas ) in Paris, France, stated in a report to clients: "We interpret the CPI report for September as yet another evidence that the United States is facing persistent inflation issues."

This means that high prices – including gasoline prices, which rose by 9.1% month-on-month in September – are eroding any salary increases you might receive at work.

Long said, "This is very different from the situation during President Trump's first term, when wage increases exceeded 15%, far higher than the inflation rate of around 8%. This also helps to explain why many families are now feeling frustrated about the economy."

Higher prices are exacerbating the general pessimism about the economy. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell to 46.3 in October, down from 71.7 in January 2025.

The person in charge of the survey, Joanne Hsu, stated that the rise in gasoline prices driven by conflicts in the Middle East, combined with the ongoing pressure on living costs over the past few years, has had a significant impact.

For Americans with tight budgets or who rely on their salaries to live, the situation where rising prices and inflation outpace wage growth is particularly difficult to bear. ZipRecruiter Economist N said about the issuance of le Bachaud: "When we look at the majority of the American workforce, that is, low- to middle-income families, the higher costs of items such as gasoline and groceries account for a larger proportion of their income."

It should be noted that there is more than one way to interpret the relationship between wage data and inflation; from certain perspectives, the actual situation of workers has actually improved.

For example, in the past year, the average weekly salary has increased at a faster rate than the average hourly salary, as the working hours of ordinary workers have increased slightly.

When asked about comments, the Trump administration emphasized annual income. A White House spokesperson Matthew Middleton stated: "Under President Trump's leadership, wages for workers in the private sector have continued to outpace inflation, with an average annual income increase of more than $600."

Inflation will play a role in the midterms.

With just a few weeks left until the midterms, affordability is likely to become a key issue.

Economic Innovation Group and Echelon Insights conducted a survey in September asking respondents: What should elected officials prioritize to improve the lives of workers? The survey found that 45% of American workers hope officials would prioritize reducing the cost of daily necessities, while 23% hope to focus on increasing the affordability of housing.

Long said, "But it's almost certain that food prices are likely to rise in the coming months as higher diesel and transportation costs are passed on to consumers."

There are other signs indicating that inflation may further worsen. A producer price index report released on Thursday showed that final demand prices rose by 1.3% in September, the highest since 2022.