Key Points
- XRP Continued correction on Thursday, with declines for three consecutive trading days.
- CoinGlass shows that the funding rate for XRP is negative, while the signals given by the long-short position ratio are rather mixed.
- The preparatory work regarding the possible actions the United States may take against Iran has also brought about more uncertainties.
Amid weak derivatives signals and a difficult macroeconomic environment that limits buying interest, XRP continued to face pressure on Thursday.
After three consecutive trading days of decline, the asset continued to rebound. The trading price of XRP is around $1.422, with a weekly decline of over 6%.
Negative funding rates indicate strong short-selling pressure in perpetual contracts, while rising yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical concerns have dragged down the overall market sentiment.
XRP Derivative Position Signals Diverge
CoinGlass data shows that the long-to-short position ratio on XRP is 0.88 on Thursday, indicating that among the data it tracks, positions are slightly biased towards shorts.
The funding rates have more consistently turned negative. Following a drop below zero on Wednesday, the XRP funding rate on Thursday was -0.0022%.
A negative funding rate means that shorts have to pay a fee to longs, which usually reflects a stronger market demand for bearish perpetual positions. However, neither the funding rate nor the position ratio can guarantee the next step in price movement.
It is reported that the US Dollar Index remained stable around 102.24 on Thursday, after reaching a high of 102.53 during trading on Monday, the highest level since early April 2025.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remained around 5.30% on Thursday, after reaching around 5.35% on Monday, which was described as a 20-year high.
Higher yields increase the attractiveness of interest-bearing investments, but they also make the environment for speculative assets such as XRP and XLM more unfavorable.
According to the reports provided, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting from September 15th to 16th show that all officials supported an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate.
Most officials also expect that in order to cope with ongoing inflation, there may be a need for another interest rate hike later this year. The aforementioned expectations further exacerbate the pressures brought about by high yields and a strong dollar.
Iran's crackdown on reporting increases geopolitical uncertainty
The report also mentioned that the United States may be making preparations to take military action against Iran again.
It is reported that the Pentagon has instructed U.S. Central Command to complete the preparatory work, while President Trump is considering the timing of any potential strikes.
These reports describe potential actions and have not confirmed that the attacks have actually occurred. However, the uncertainty surrounding the escalation of the situation may prompt markets to take defensive positions, supporting demand for the US dollar and reducing preference for cryptocurrencies.
XRP Price Outlook: The $1,400 support level is under test
Despite this week's decline, XRP remains above its key daily exponential moving average.
The 50-day EMA is around $1.400, providing immediate support; followed closely by the 200-day EMA at $1.389. Further down, the 100-day EMA is at $1.336.
Maintaining these levels will help to preserve the relatively positive technical structure of XRP. However, momentum remains weak: RSI is hovering around 45, while MACD is below the zero line.
If it continues to fall below the nearby moving average support, the levels of $1.336 and $1.300 will come into view as support. The report considers $1.000 as a further downward reference point.
On the upside, analysts consider $1.671 to be an important resistance level. If this resistance is continuously broken through, $1.900 will come into view.
