IT News on September 30th, TrendForce (JIBANG) released its forecast for the memory market in Q4 2026 today: Generally, the DRAM contract price is expected to rise by 10%~15% month-on-month, and with the inclusion of HBM, the overall DRAM contract price is expected to increase by 15%~20%; the NAND flash memory contract price is also expected to rise by 15%~20% month-on-month.
Overall, the upstream original manufacturers of DRAM will continue to invest advanced manufacturing capacity into high-performance server products, maintaining a pattern of overall supply shortage, although the upward trend in contract prices has slowed down; in the NAND market, there is a dual-track trend of accelerating AI and low consumer demand, yet prices are still rising accordingly.
The institution believes that the production capacity allocated to PC DRAM in 2027 is likely to decline further; the demand for server DRAM will continue to exceed supply; although the growth trends for mobile DRAM and consumer DRAM remain unchanged, the rate of increase will be more modest.
On the other hand, the original manufacturer's pricing attitude for the client SSD has become more flexible, with increases being contained; the overall increase for enterprise-level SSD is expected to expand in Q4 2026; the new procurement volume of embedded flash memory such as eMMC / UFS is quite limited; downstream module companies are also becoming more cautious in their purchases of NAND flash memory wafers.
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TrendForce Jibang Consulting: AI Increasing demand for servers supports the upward trend of memory contract prices in Q4 2026, while pressure on the consumer side remains unchanged
