Foreign media: Mike McGlone, a senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, believes that Bitcoin is losing its independent attributes as "digital gold," and its trend is increasingly influenced by the U.S. stock market and macro liquidity. If the U.S. stock market enters a clear adjustment period, the downward pressure on Bitcoin could further increase.
Three signals exert pressure simultaneously.
McGlone mentioned in the latest comments that there are several bearish signals in the current market. Firstly, Bitcoin's previous rebound stalled around $76,746 and failed to break through the key milestone of $80,000. Secondly, one-year federal funds rate futures indicate that the market has already factored in expectations for another interest rate hike of about 70 basis points.
He also pointed out that the deviation of the S&P 500 index from its 200-week moving average is already at a relatively high level, and the risk of institutional investors collectively taking profits in the future is increasing. If this occurs, the crypto market may also come under pressure simultaneously.
Deepen linkage with U.S. stocks
This comment argues that in recent years, the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market has significantly increased, and Bitcoin no longer exhibits the characteristics of a defensive asset. According to them, over the past five years, Bitcoin's returns have been roughly comparable to those of the S&P 500, but its volatility has been much higher.
The article also mentions that as the crypto market expands and the number of altcoins surges, Bitcoin's role in the market has changed. It is no longer just a single, independent asset; rather, it is increasingly seen as part of high-volatility, risky assets, and therefore its trend tends to be more in line with that of tech stocks.
Extreme scenarios point to the $10,000 range.
The core judgment of McGlone is that if the S&P 500 enters a natural adjustment phase and falls by 20%, Bitcoin could be dragged down to a longer-term lower range, and in extreme cases, it might approach the $10,000 level.
However, this bearish scenario is not without the possibility of being overturned. The article argues that Bitcoin will only have a chance to re-establish its position as "digital gold" if it can continue to rise independently while U.S. stocks weaken. For now, he believes that macroeconomic indicators do not yet support such a change.
