nft: Foreign media: Tom Lee expects Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin
Cryptonews
08-22 04:36
Ai Focus
Tom Lee believes that tokenization, on-chain AI, and ETF capital flows will drive ETH to perform relatively stronger in this cycle compared to BTC.
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外媒称,Fundstrat 联合创始人、BitMine 董事长 Tom Lee 认为,本轮市场周期中,以太坊的表现可能强于比特币。他给出的主要理由是,华尔街推进代币化、链上 AI 应用扩展,以及美国现货以太坊 ETF 资金流回升,正在为 ETH 带来新的需求预期。

Fundstrat 还比较了 17 家市值超过 20 亿美元的大盘股与主流加密资产的联动情况。结果显示,BitMine Immersion Technologies 与 ETH 的相关性最高,达到 80%;Coinbase 在 ETH 相关组中为 74%。在比特币相关股票中,Strategy 以 78% 居首,Coinbase 同样为 74%。

BitMine被视为 ETH 替代敞口

文章称,BitMine 之所以排在前列,与其持续扩张以太坊储备有关。公司此前提出建设企业级以太坊金库。按 8 月 16 日披露数据,BitMine 持有 5,815,164 枚 ETH、210 枚比特币,以及 7800 万美元现金和可交易证券。

按文中采用的 ETH 价格 1893 美元计算,BitMine 持有的加密资产、现金、证券及其他投资合计价值约 114 亿美元。其中,以太坊持仓约占官方流通供应量的 4.8%,距离其 5% 的目标已完成约 96%。

文章还提到,BitMine 自 2025 年 6 月 30 日启动以太坊储备策略后,已连续按周增持 ETH。截至 8 月 16 日当周,公司又买入 9926 枚 ETH。BMNR 股价在 8 月 21 日收于约 22.72 美元,当日上涨约 5.3%。

质押收益成为核心变量

在 BitMine 持有的 582 万枚 ETH 中,截至 8 月 16 日已有 5,067,309 枚进入质押,占比约 87%。按公司披露口径,这部分资产价值约 96 亿美元。

基于 7 日年化收益率 2.61%,BitMine 预计这部分仓位每年可带来约 2.5 亿美元质押收入;若剩余 ETH 也通过 MAVAN 平台及外部合作方完成质押,年化奖励或可升至 2.87 亿美元。

文章认为,这也是 BitMine 与以比特币为核心储备资产的 Strategy 之间的重要差异。比特币本身不提供 PoS 质押收益,而 BitMine 的收入模型则与 ETH 价格、质押收益率、验证者表现和实际质押比例直接相关。

代币化与 ETF 资金流

Tom Lee 认为,推动 ETH 在本轮周期相对走强的,不再只是过往的 代币发行、NFT 或稳定币扩张,而是华尔街代币化和区块链 AI 应用。文中提到,截至 8 月 21 日,RWA.xyz 统计以太坊网络上已有 2267 项现实世界资产,过去 30 天转账量约 139.9 亿美元,环比增长 20.45%。

同一组数据显示,以太坊上的稳定币总市值约为 1571.1 亿美元,持有地址约 2660 万个,过去 30 天转账量约 1.55 万亿美元。Ondo、Securitize、Circle、Tether 和 Sky 等项目均被列入该网络上的代币化资产平台。

文章还将美国现货 ETF 资金流视为机构需求的另一项观察指标。7 月,美国现货以太坊 ETF 净流入约 3.65 亿美元,高于同期现货比特币 ETF 的 2.05 亿美元。这也是现货以太坊 ETF 单月表现最强的一次。

其中,7 月 23 日,以太坊 ETF 单日净流入约 7264 万美元,同期比特币 ETF 为 6899 万美元。8 月 4 日,以太坊 ETF 又录得约 5375 万美元净流入,随后三个交易日合计再增 2.02 亿美元。同期 ETH/BTC 比值在 7 月大约上涨 11%,由约 0.027 升至 0.030。

补充信息:文章同时提到 Robinhood Chain 作为金融服务与区块链结合的案例。该 Layer 2 网络以 ETH 支付手续费,并将最终交易记录提交至以太坊主网。按文中数据,该网络上线数周后,累计 DEX 交易量已接近 90 亿美元,锁仓资产约 4.31 亿美元,日活用户超过 25 万。

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