According to CoinMeta, in 2023, extreme heat and drought in Japan caused damage to rice crops, leading to a severe shortage that forced a government minister to resign. By 2026, Japan's rice inventory had reached a record surplus, and the government was forced to buy back rice to prevent price collapses. Experts were surprised by this fluctuation. CSIS Japanese researcher Ryosuke Ijima stated that the gap between supply and demand was not large, but overproduction led to inventory levels rising from a low in 2024 to 2.43 million tons. Japan relies almost entirely on domestic production for rice, with imports mainly coming from the United States. In 2025, during a time of domestic shortage, U.S. President Donald Trump complained that Japan was unwilling to import American rice. The 2025 U.S.-Japan trade agreement prompted Japan to increase its purchases of American rice by 75%. Ijima believes that this trend will continue in 2026.