Bitcoin traded sideways for the third consecutive day, with the price fluctuating between $64,000 and $66,800. After rebounding more than 13% from its early July lows, market momentum has slowed, and the previous breakout above $66,000 failed to continue, leading short-term funds to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
The macro market has not yet provided a clear direction.
External markets are currently offering no clear guidance. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures both edged lower, the dollar index was essentially flat, and gold and silver retreated after a safe-haven rally the previous day. For crypto assets, there are neither significant positive factors nor new external pressures in the short term.
Futures open interest declined
Derivatives markets show that traders' directional bets are weakening. In the past 24 hours, cryptocurrency futures trading volume was approximately $147 billion, little changed from the previous day; open interest remained around $111 billion, and the long/short ratio was also close to balanced.
Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen from a high of over 760,000 BTC earlier this week to approximately 743,000 BTC. This suggests that some existing positions are exiting after the rally stalled. The article notes that this pullback is more likely due to long positions being liquidated than a large influx of new short positions.
In contrast, Ethereum's open interest actually increased slightly despite the overnight price weakness. Meanwhile, the 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative trading volume difference for ETH remained positive, indicating that active buying by buyers continued.
Volatility continues to rise
The Bitcoin 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has risen for the fifth consecutive day. The article points out that since the launch of spot ETFs, the BTC spot price and BVIV have mostly been negatively correlated; therefore, continued increases in volatility are often seen as a signal requiring short-term caution. Ethereum's corresponding volatility index (EVIV), however, has remained relatively stable.
In the options market, Deribit and the over-the-counter platform Paradigm saw demand for $70,000 worth of BTC call options expiring on August 7th. Simultaneously, some traders bought longer-term put options to hedge. ETH options, on the other hand, generally showed an upward bias. With the put/call skew of both BTC and ETH approaching zero, the previous risk aversion in the market has weakened.
Altcoins show mixed performance
In the altcoin sector, WLFI rose 12.18% to $0.063, becoming one of the best-performing tokens during the day, with its market capitalization recovering to approximately $2 billion. Morpho rose nearly 4%, continuing its recent strong performance. Ethena rose 2%, outperforming most similar DeFi projects over the past week.
Lighter fell for the third consecutive trading day, dropping another 2.96%. After surging over 200% from May to early July, the token is now facing significant profit-taking pressure. CoinMarketCap's "Altcoin Season" indicator is currently at 51/100, indicating that the market is still waiting for Bitcoin to show a clearer direction.
