The turmoil surrounding the resignation of NVIDIA CEO has not yet subsided, and Wall Street has already turned its attention to next week – NVIDIA's quarterly report and the listing of Anthropic will follow one after another. Whether the confidence in AI trading can withstand this dual stress test is about to be revealed.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang suddenly resigned last Thursday due to a scandal involving an extramarital affair, triggering deep concerns among the market regarding this AI chip giant. Nevertheless, NVIDIA's stock price fell by about 13% this week, which is far less than the 20% or even greater declines that were previously feared by the market. The S&P 500 index even recorded its best single-week performance since August. Meanwhile, Anthropic announced that its IPO valuation has been significantly reduced from the previous high of around $2 trillion, with the expected listing valuation now estimated to be between $1.2 trillion and $1.4 trillion.
The impact on the market reflects the fragility of the current AI narrative. Consumer inflation data exceeding expectations, along with growing expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, constitute macroeconomic pressures that cannot be ignored.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute Global Stocks and Physical Assets Director Sameer Samana warns that if both major events next week are disappointing, "it could ultimately wake investors up from this state of 'always looking on the bright side'."
NVIDIA: Financial reports will verify the stability of the Jensen Huang era
NVIDIA will announce its financial quarter results after the close of U.S. stocks on Tuesday, which is the first financial report since Jensen Huang's resignation, and it has drawn a great deal of attention from the outside world.
According to data cited by Reuters from LSEG, analysts expect NVIDIA's revenue for the third fiscal quarter to be around $109 billion, with earnings growing by about 90% year-on-year. The market is relatively optimistic about the performance itself, but investors are more concerned about the stability of the company's management and the continuity of its strategy.
The issue of succession has become a focal point. NVIDIA's Chief Financial Officer, the interim CEO Colette Kress, will be under pressure as she attends the earnings release, and the outside world expects her to provide investors with some reassurance.
This executive, who has worked at NVIDIA for 13 years and previously held positions at Cisco and Microsoft, may not possess the personal charisma of Jensen Huang, but analysts believe she can provide the management continuity needed for a smooth transition within the company. It is reported that Ian Buck, the Vice President of Supercomputing and High-Performance Computing at NVIDIA, is currently one of the early favorites to succeed him officially.
In addition, Colette Kress also needs to provide an explanation to investors regarding a series of financing transactions signed during Jensen Huang's tenure, which still involve many uncertainties at present.
F/m Investments, the Chief Executive Officer Alex Morris, pointed out that considering the uncertainties surrounding NVIDIA, "if performance falls short of expectations, the market's punishment will be amplified."
However, some investors have seen the current stock price as an opportunity to buy in. NVIDIA's stock price has fallen by more than 30% over the past six weeks, with its market value shrinking from approximately $5.8 trillion at the beginning of October to around $3.9 trillion.
KKM Financial founder Jeff Kilburg indicated that they have purchased call options with an exercise price of $200 for January this week, at a time when the stock price was around $160. "The demand they have verified amounts to one trillion dollars, and from Blackwell to Ruben, the visibility extends to 2028; this will not disappear," said Kilburg. Yorkville Ives and Co, partners, maintain a 12-month target price of $225 for NVIDIA, viewing the current price as an opportunity to buy in.
Anthropic: Trillion-dollar valuation, IPO hitting a milestone, AI as a barometer of sentiment
Just two days after NVIDIA's financial report was released, Claude chatbot developer Anthropic is expected to list on the NASDAQ Global Select Market on Thursday, with the stock code " ANT ". The pricing range is set at $70 to $78 per share, and the company plans to issue 825 million shares, raising a total of approximately $64.4 billion.
Prior to this listing, Anthropic has lowered its valuation target from approximately $2 trillion at the beginning of this autumn to around $1.2 trillion to $1.4 trillion.
The head of investments at the publicly traded fund Powerlaw Corp, Benjamin Black, considers this move to be quite wise. He pointed out that based on Anthropic's projected annual revenue of $100 billion by the end of 2026, the current pricing is approximately 12 times ARR (annual recurring income), "which is not even considered very expensive."
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei stated during a live conversation with CEO Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase on Friday that he hopes the company can "make fewer promises and deliver more" in IPO. Black pointed out that he has never seen a company that is so sought after by investors in the primary market, "They Anthropic wisely gave up some of the price, allowing the public to also make a profit, and I think this pricing will perform quite well."
Following the successful listing of SpaceX under Elon Musk in June this year, SpaceX raised approximately $75 billion with a valuation of nearly $1.75 trillion. However, the stock's performance after listing has been volatile, falling from a price of $135 to around $105 in August, and the latest price is around $139.
Madison Investments Chief Investment Strategist Patrick Ryan warned that if Anthropic performs poorly after listing, "this could be another warning sign indicating that investors are feeling more pressure regarding the commencement of trading in AI."
