Before the market opened on November 11th, NVIDIA ( NVDA.O ) rose by over 5%, but its market value had already decreased by more than $420 billion in the previous two days, with the evaporated market value exceeding Oracle's ( ORCL.N ) $366.9 billion market value. On November 10th, NVIDIA's closing market value was $4.07 trillion, approaching the $4 trillion mark, widening the gap with Apple ( AAPL.O ), which holds the title of the world's largest market value.

As a leader in the AI infrastructure sector, NVIDIA's halo has recently dimmed. Allegations related to the private relationship between its founder and CEO Jensen Huang are seen as key factors disrupting the market. As NVIDIA's latest quarterly financial report, due to be released on November 17th local time, approaches, performance indicators and potential changes at the company's management level have also become important considerations for the market when evaluating NVIDIA.

Combining the current forecasts of various institutions and the adjustments to their target prices, there is a rather divided attitude towards NVIDIA among them. On one hand, there is the fact that the stock price has become more affordable, and on the other hand, there are potential uncertainties in the company's operations. Market sentiment seems to be in a state of indecision before NVIDIA releases its financial reports.

The latest quarterly financial report is about to be released.

NVIDIA will announce its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2027, which ended on October 25, 2026, on November 17th local time. Typically, Jensen Huang will speak at the financial report conference call and answer questions from investors. The following day, Jensen Huang is scheduled to attend a closed-door briefing related to recent controversies. Meanwhile, NVIDIA's board of directors is conducting an independent investigation into these matters.

If Jensen Huang delivers a speech at the financial report conference as usual, this could be his first public statement since the incident. His explanation and outlook for NVIDIA's business operations will be the focus of market attention.

Previously, NVIDIA had provided guidance for its third fiscal quarter results: the revenue forecast midpoint was $108 billion, with a range of plus or minus 2%; the gross margin was expected to be 74%, with a range of plus or minus 50 basis points. According to S&P data, the current market average forecast for NVIDIA's third fiscal quarter revenue is $109.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 91.2%; net profit is expected to be $60.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 90%; and the gross margin is 74.03%. The revenue forecast falls within the upper middle range of the company's guidance.

Goldman Sachs recently made a forecast that is slightly higher than the average market forecast mentioned above. Goldman Sachs expects NVIDIA's revenue for the third fiscal quarter to be $110.081 billion, at the high end of the guidance range; the gross margin to be 74.1%; and data center revenue to be approximately $102.551 billion. Goldman Sachs believes that NVIDIA will report solid results for the third fiscal quarter.

NVIDIA will also disclose its performance guidance for the next fiscal quarter. According to S&P data, the current market average forecast for NVIDIA's revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter is $124.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 83.1%; net profit is expected to be $67.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.7%.

Goldman Sachs also has slightly higher expectations for NVIDIA's fourth-quarter performance than the market average. Goldman Sachs expects that driven by gross margin, NVIDIA's revenue in the fourth quarter will reach $124.814 billion; and it forecasts NVIDIA's earnings per share for the third and fourth quarters to be $2.57 and $2.88 respectively, both 6% higher than market projections. Wells Fargo, on the other hand, predicts that NVIDIA's revenue in the fourth quarter will be $126.4 billion, which is higher than market consensus.

In August of this year, NVIDIA also provided its financial guidance for the first time a year ahead of schedule: revenue is expected to grow by about 70% in fiscal year 2028. The company also revealed that orders from the top five hyperscale cloud service providers will approach $800 billion by 2026 and nearly $1.3 trillion by 2027. Whether NVIDIA will update its guidance during the earnings conference call is also a focal point of market attention.

Currently, there are relatively few doubts about NVIDIA's fundamentals in the market, with the main focus being on the progress of AI infrastructure construction. Wells Fargo is optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of NVIDIA AI and believes that the demand for AI and NVIDIA's fundamentals will not be significantly impacted. Goldman Sachs believes that the implementation risks for data center deployments in 2027 are limited, but at the same time, it points out that there are uncertainties in areas such as power supply in 2028, and investors will also closely examine the sustainability of AI infrastructure investments.

Investors' concerns mainly stem from the possibility of changes at the management level of NVIDIA. Although NVIDIA has made it clear that Jensen Huang will continue to serve in his CEO role, there are still doubts in the market.

Divergent attitudes among institutions

Data from the forecasting platform Kalshi shows that the probability of Jensen Huang leaving his position before the end of 2027 is 17%, which will rise to 30% by the end of 2028. If Jensen Huang no longer serves as CEO in the future, Dan Ives, a partner at the investment research firm Yorkville Ives and a senior technology analyst, suggests that NVIDIA's corporate value and stock price could decline by 25% to 30%, and the company's future development direction might also change.

Institutional attitudes also begin to diverge as a result.

Goldman Sachs recently reiterated its ‘buy’ rating on NVIDIA, with a 12-month target price of $300. Bernstein continues to maintain its ‘outperform the market’ rating for NVIDIA and a target price of $400. On November 10th, Morgan Stanley classified the North American semiconductor industry as ‘attractive’, continuing to favor NVIDIA, while also showing optimism towards Broadcom.

Morgan Stanley stated in a research report that recent risks may cause the North American semiconductor sector to experience range-bound fluctuations, but there is a tendency to buy as stock prices approach the lower end of that range. Julian Emanuel, Senior Managing Director of Evercore ISI, indicated that his company has recently included NVIDIA in the list of AI stocks worth buying next year. The reasons include: if NVIDIA's leadership remains stable, the current weak trend may present an excellent opportunity.

However, some institutions have already voted with their actions.

On November 10th, Bank of America announced adjustments to its stock recommendation list, removing NVIDIA, Micron Technology, and Fanuc Semiconductor from the “US 1” (U.S. Preferred Stocks) list, but still maintaining a “Buy” rating for these three stocks. Wells Fargo lowered NVIDIA’s target price from $315 to $300, while maintaining a “Overweight” rating. Citibank also lowered NVIDIA’s target price from $315 to $285. Mizuho Bank reduced NVIDIA’s target price from $315 to $250.

Among them, the reason why analysts at Wells Fargo lowered their target price is that NVIDIA is facing risks related to key individuals involved in the investigation of Jensen Huang. Bernstein, on the other hand, stated that although the recent controversies surrounding Jensen Huang are unlikely to directly affect the demand for NVIDIA's AI chips, they may increase regulatory and political pressure. NVIDIA's management system relies heavily on Jensen Huang's leadership, and it is unclear who would be able to take his place if he were unable to continue performing his duties.

Sawaya Securities analyst Jordan Klein ( Jordan Klein ) stated that NVIDIA's stock price currently appears to be extremely cheap, with a forward price-earnings ratio approaching 10 times. Such a situation usually occurs in companies with structural damage and long-term business decline, but NVIDIA does not fall into that category. However, NVIDIA's pricing still faces uncertainties, one of which is due to doubts surrounding the leadership of Jensen Huang.

Although NVIDIA's board of directors has not yet updated the investigation results, how NVIDIA responds to the company's management issues during a teleconference following the release of its latest financial report will also have a certain impact on market confidence.

Author: Zheng Xutong