Will the price of XRP fall before the unlocking in November?

XRP has been monthly unlocked since January 2018, and in the past 106 instances, it has not consistently caused a decline in prices. Ripple plans to release 1 billion XRP on November 1st, with two custodial accounts each releasing 500 million coins.

Data shows that XRP averaged a decline of 0.1% in typical unlocking weeks, while in weeks without unlocking, the decline was close to 1%. XRP experienced declines in 51% of the unlocking weeks, and the proportion of declines in other weeks was 54%.

Ripple relocks 700 million XRP into custody every month.

In December 2017, Ripple placed 55 billion XRP into custody and set up a schedule to release 1 billion XRP on the 1st of each month. Before the unlocking in November, there were approximately 31.4 billion XRP remaining in custody.

However, it is not certain that all of the 1 billion XRP tokens released will remain outside of custody. Within a few hours after the release of 700 million XRP tokens in September and October 2026, Ripple will reinstate those 700 million tokens back into custody. This pattern has been repeating every month since August 2025, so approximately only 300 million XRP tokens remain outside of custody each month.

Out of 106 unlocking days, XRP showed an increase on 59 days. If the comparison period is extended to two weeks, the typical unlocking period remains flat overall, while the typical two-week period without unlocking saw a decline of about 1.5%.

Bitcoin and major news coincide with significant fluctuations of XRP.

XRP experienced some of its largest declines during the unlocking week, which coincided with a significant drop in Bitcoin prices.

In February 2018, XRP experienced its worst unlocking week on record, with the price falling from around $1.35 per coin to $0.82, a decrease of about 40%. A position holding 1,000 XRP coins suffered a loss of over $500, while during the same period, Bitcoin fell by 31%.

In February 2026, XRP fell by about 21%, causing the value of 1,000 XRP to drop from approximately $1,911 to $1,512. During the same period, Bitcoin also fell by 18%.

Other significant price fluctuations occurred alongside regulatory and political developments. On December 22, 2020, after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed a lawsuit against Ripple, XRP fell by about 61% in the following month, while Bitcoin rose by about 69% during the same period.

In December 2024, XRP rose by about 60% within a single unlocking week, from around $1.47 to $2.36. This increase coincided with the market's anticipation of the resignation of the Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, as well as the growing speculation regarding the results of the U.S. presidential election. During the same period, Bitcoin's price increase was less than 3%.

These examples indicate that when the largest fluctuations of XRP occur, they are often accompanied by significant market events. However, based solely on historical comparisons, it is not possible to prove the specific cause of each price change.

Recent data indicates that there are signs of weakness during the unlocking week.

Cryptography analysts cheeky and crypto pointed out that there was a period during which XRP fell more frequently within the unlocking weeks. Since the beginning of 2024, XRP has fallen in 22 out of 34 unlocking weeks, which is about two-thirds.

However, this pattern becomes less pronounced in 2025. Since the beginning of 2025, XRP has seen declines in about 59% of the unlocked weeks, while the decline rate in regular weeks is 57%.

The performance in the month following unlocking was also slightly weaker than that of typical months, however, the proportion of months with price declines was almost the same. The analysis indicates that a weekly comparison does not rule out the gradual impact of keeping certain XRP assets outside of custody.

During this analysis, XRP has also fallen from around $3 in the summer of 2025 to around $1.31. The data does not prove whether repeated releases have contributed to this downward trend.

November Unlocks History and October Price Performance

Among the 8 instances of unlocking in November that were studied, XRP showed an increase in 5 of those weeks. However, in November 2025, XRP fell by about 15% during the unlocking week, while Bitcoin also fell by 10% at that time.

The most recent unlocking occurred on October 1, 2026, and by the end of that week, the value of 1,000 XRP increased slightly from around $1,517 to $1,521. In the following week, XRP fell by about 9%, and during the same period, Bitcoin also declined.

Therefore, the data for October showed a relatively stable unlocking week, followed by a decline, rather than a sharp drop on the day of release.

What to Pay Attention To on November 1st

The Swell conference, which is part of the Ripple series, is scheduled to take place in New York from October 27th to 29th, while the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decisions on October 28th. Both developments could potentially influence market conditions before the unlocking in November.

The next release is scheduled for 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on November 1st, which corresponds to 8:00 PM on October 31st in New York Time.

The quantity of tokens that are released and then re-placed back into custody is an important indicator to observe. The custody balance may initially drop to around 30.4 billion XRP. If Ripple re-locks 700 million XRP back, the balance will rise to around 31.1 billion XRP, which means that approximately 300 million XRP will remain outside of custody.

This balance may not be restored immediately. After the unlocks on Sundays of February and March 2026, Ripple will complete the re-locking transaction on Monday. Therefore, if the initial reading on November 1st shows 30.4 billion XRP, it does not necessarily indicate how many XRP will ultimately remain outside of custody.

The unlocking period will be counted until the close of trading on November 4th, and the two-week observation period will end on November 8th. The next scheduled monthly release date is December 1st.

Historical data shows that the monthly unlocking of XRP does not reliably predict short-term losses. However, these data also cannot prove that the release from custody has no impact on prices at all, especially over longer periods. In addition to the amount of XRP that is re-locked back into custody, Bitcoin trends, Federal Reserve decisions, and significant regulatory developments are still important factors that need to be taken into consideration together.

This article is a report by CoinPedia. The views and analyses expressed in the article are the property of the original author and do not constitute investment advice.