After U.S. President Donald Trump made remarks regarding military action against Iran, Bitcoin's intraday decline widened to 3%, and the U.S. stock market also came under pressure.
On Thursday, when Wall Street opened, Bitcoin ( BTC ) was still below $82,000. As headlines about the Iran war once again put pressure on risky assets, BTC continued to weaken.
Key points:
- On Thursday, while the U.S. stock market fell due to geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin managed to limit its daily decline to 3%.
- U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated that new military actions against Iran may be taken, and there are currently no negotiations underway.
- BTC Price analysis suggests that before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on October 28th, $84,400 is the short-term upper limit.
Trump claims the U.S. "is not negotiating with Iran," leading to a decline in the stock market
TradingView data shows that BTC / USD once touched $81,256 on Bitstamp, a decrease of 2.9% from the previous day.
Mixed reactions to Tesla earnings and capital expenditures combined with a risk-off mentality stoked by fresh comments from Trump that the US was “ not negotiating ” with the Iranian side .
Trump told reporters, "We will soon face some situation in one way or another. Most people seem to think that it will be after the elections, so let's wait and see." He was referring to the U.S. mid-term elections on November 3rd.
U.S. stock markets opened lower, and as of press time, the S&P 500 index has fallen by 1.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index, which has a higher proportion of tech stocks, has dropped by 2.3%.
Ian Lyngen told Bloomberg, "Amid global risk sentiment under pressure, tech stocks are facing stress due to renewed concerns about AI valuations. The rebound in energy prices has also intensified risk-aversion sentiment." He also stated:
"As global risk sentiment comes under pressure, U.S. Treasury bonds have become the main beneficiaries."
As bond yields improved, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note briefly approached 5% before falling to its lowest level since September 23.
It is expected that before the Fed meeting, BTC will remain within a narrow range.
After approaching $85,000 the previous day, the price trend of BTC continued to fluctuate around the cost base of approximately $81,500 for the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF).
Analysts from the research department Bitfinex Alpha of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex predicted on Wednesday that before the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision meeting on October 28th, the price of BTC / USD will trade within a narrow range of $81,300 to $84,400.
Analysts wrote: "If the demand for ETF continues and leverage indicators remain stable, it will support prices to break through $84,400; however, if macroeconomic headwinds are combined with closing prices below $81,300, it will increase the risk of prices falling back to the October 15 low of $79,821."
Looking at a longer time period, traders have lowered the probability of a significant rebound before mid-January 2027. Trader Kalshi has reduced the probability of BTC / USD reaching new historical highs to just 3%.
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