How does Tesla count FSD subscriptions?
The following are the data disclosed by Tesla according to this standard:
Tesla ceased selling FSD via a one-time purchase option on February 14, 2026. New customers can now only obtain this feature through a subscription, with a price of $99 per month in the United States. However, all owners who purchased FSD in advance for up to $15,000 before that date will continue to be counted in the statistics as long as their vehicles are still in use. The only exception are users who participated in the free trial.
We pointed this out in April, when Tesla disclosed a figure of 1.28 million. Six months later, Tesla still has not explained how many of these 1.74 million people actually pay on a monthly basis.
The same approach is also seen in other parts of the letter. Tesla's "cumulative delivery volume" currently stands at 10.2 million units, and this figure also includes any "unmonitored Robotaxi" that has been put into commercial operation, in order to be consistent with the targets set in the compensation plan. One of the milestones set by this plan is 20 million vehicles.
75% assembly rate
Tesla also stated that in the third quarter, over 75% of the newly delivered vehicles in North America included FSD subscriptions, which is an "increase of nearly 20 percentage points compared to the previous quarter." The company believes that " FSD is driving demand in its available markets."
This number is quite large, but Tesla has not provided a definition for it. The letter does not clarify whether this ratio includes subscriptions that were activated with trial discounts at the time of delivery, nor does it specify how many of these buyers are still paying several months later. The active subscription metric excludes free trials, but Tesla has not provided the same clarification regarding the installation rate.
The Road to 10 Million
Elon Musk's incentive plan for 2025 is divided into 12 tiers. Each tier requires achieving a market value milestone and an operational milestone. The operational indicators include delivering 20 million cars, 10 million active FSD subscriptions, 1 million Optimus robots, 1 million Robotaxi units put into commercial operation, as well as adjusted EBITDA targets. As of June 30th, Tesla believes that only one of the milestones is achievable: delivering 20 million cars.
Tesla added 260,000 new FSD subscriptions in the third quarter, which is its best performance to date. At this rate, it will take about 8 years to reach 10 million subscriptions. If we calculate at the rate of approximately 700,000 subscriptions per year over the past 12 months, it would take nearly 12 years. Moreover, this incentive program will continue until 2035.
Views of Electrek
It is not wrong to simply include the owners of FSD who purchased them outright in the statistics, as these vehicles indeed are equipped with the relevant software. The problem lies in referring to this as a “subscription” and using the total number as evidence of growth momentum. However, this narrative was crafted for Musk’s compensation package, not to help investors understand the business.
This has now become Tesla's top software metric. The board of directors has established this standard, and Musk's salary is also dependent on it, yet the company is unwilling to disclose exactly how many people pay $99 per month. Tesla is clearly aware of this figure.
If this assembly rate is true, then what is even more noteworthy is the retention rate. For a product that costs $99 per month, a 75% adoption rate would indeed represent a successful business model. So, please show us the retention data: How many of the North American buyers who subscribed in the second quarter are still paying for their service today?
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