Market Overview

At 20:30 on Friday before the market opened, the United States released employment data. In September, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll increased by 29,000 jobs, compared to an expected 90,000 jobs. The previous figure was revised from 162,000 to 133,000 jobs. The unemployment rate in the United States in September was 4.2%, in line with expectations of 4.1%, and the previous figure was also 4.1%. The three major U.S. stock index futures saw a short-term rally.

(The following is the market situation before the release of economic data)

International crude oil futures all fell.WTI Crude Oil Futures Main Contract (2611) ( CLmain.US )Tumbled nearly 4%.Brent Crude Oil (Cash) Futures Main Contract (2612) ( BZmain.US )Plunged by more than 2%.

Semiconductors ( LIST2015.US )Most stocks were higher in the morning session: Arm, Maiwei Technology rose by over 2%, Intel rose by nearly 2%, NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom rose by over 1%; SK Hynix fell by nearly 1%.

Storage Concepts ( LIST23925.US )The stock market opened with a general decline; Seagate Technologies fell nearly 13%, Western Digital fell nearly 9%, and Sandisk fell over 1%. There are reports that Toshiba will invest 60 billion yen to double its hard drive supply in order to fill the gap in AI chip memory.

Individual Stock News

Tesla Q3 delivery data is about to be released: Sales are expected to decline. According to the predictions of analysts summarized by FactSet,Tesla ( TSLA.US )It is expected to deliver 461,000 electric vehicles in the third quarter, a decrease of 7% compared to the same period last year. The expected decline in sales is occurring on the basis of a higher base in 2025. At that time, due to the Trump administration's plan to end federal tax credits in the United States, consumers accelerated their car purchases in advance. Analysts point out that investors are paying more and more attention to Tesla's progress in autonomous taxis ( robotaxi ) and humanoid robots, rather than its traditional automobile business.

Micron clearly states for the first time that supply will be tighter in 2027-2028, with simultaneous capacity expansion at its four major bases HBM. According to a report by Taiwan's "Electronics Times" on October 2nd,Micron Technology ( MU.US )Dong Huilu, Vice President of Front-End Manufacturing for Asia at DRAM and Chairman of Micron Taiwan, confirmed that AI is driving strong demand for memory, and the company is simultaneously advancing the expansion of its four major production bases. Extending the assessment of tight supply until 2027 to 2028 is the most significant new information provided in this financial report.

This statement elevates the supply constraints of HBM from a short-term narrative to a medium-term structural judgment. Its direct implication is that even if the entire industry is expanding production, the strong price cycle of HBM may be longer than previously anticipated, and consequently, the support period for storage manufacturers' profit centers will also be extended.

Broadcom is reportedly planning to raise $60 billion in chip financing to support Anthropic and others. According to foreign media, sources familiar with the matter revealed thatBroadcom ( AVGO.US )The Wall Street syndicate is beginning to raise a new round of $60 billion in AI chip financing to support companies such as Anthropic. The banks participating in this massive debt financing deal are preparing to issue syndicate invitation letters to investors for a $42 billion Class A senior secured debt. Blackstone Group is leading a $18 billion Class B subordinated debt financing and plans to commit $9 billion through its various funds, with the remaining amount to be distributed by the syndicate. This financing plan has been in the works for several weeks.

Insiders from Wall Street and Silicon Valley are closely monitoring this deal, hoping to determine whether investors are still willing to provide funding for the infrastructure expansion of AI. Broadcom is seeking to sell more chips and other data center equipment, competing with NVIDIA; meanwhile, companies such as Anthropic and other AI firms are in need of increasing computing power. In August of this year, informed sources stated that this potential deal will help companies, including Anthropic, obtain chips and other essential AI infrastructure.

Amazon seeks support for data center construction, pledging to invest over $1 billion in the community over five years.Amazon ( AMZN.US )Promoting its image as a “good neighbor” in order to gain support for its artificial intelligence data centers, this cloud computing giant issued a memorandum on Friday stating that competing for dominance over AI is “a race our country cannot afford to lose,” and listed various measures to support the communities where its data centers are located. The memorandum, authored by Amazon Web Services CEO Matt Gorman, is over 3,100 words long and states that Amazon will invest more than $1 billion in these communities over the next five years, not including the funds it has already pledged. This money will be used for education, vocational training, water resource protection, and other local priorities.

Amazon is reportedly planning to transfer approximately $8 billion worth of NVIDIA AI chips to SPV and then lease them back. According to the Financial Times, which cited people familiar with the matter,Amazon ( AMZN.US )There are plans to sell NVIDIA's high-end chips, valued at approximately $8 billion, to external investors through a newly established special vehicle in order to optimize the balance sheet. The company has been in talks with investors in recent weeks to assess the market's interest in this transaction.

According to the plan, Amazon will remove thousands of Grace Blackwell (Grace Blackwell) chips deployed in data centers across the United States and transfer them to a special purpose vehicle (SPV). Subsequently, Amazon will rent back these high-end artificial intelligence chips from the special purpose vehicle, which will introduce external investors by issuing bonds. By transferring this batch of high-value semiconductor assets to investors, Amazon can shift to a lighter-asset operating model on its balance sheet. Amazon declined to comment on this matter.

Morgan Stanley has listed NVIDIA as its preferred semiconductor stock. Morgan Stanley has re-listedNVIDIA ( NVDA.US )NVIDIA is listed as their preferred semiconductor stock due to its strong market position and attractive valuation. Currently, NVIDIA's stock price corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of about 15 times Morgan Stanley's earnings forecast for the fiscal year 2028, and at the same time, market expectations for its earnings continue to rise.

Morgan Stanley indicates that the bottleneck in the artificial intelligence industry is shifting from chip supply to data center construction and financing; at the same time, NVIDIA has a wide global customer base, which allows it to flexibly expand its business according to the available power capacity.

New Mexico, USA, seeks a fine of $40 billion against Meta. On Thursday, New Mexico requested a judge to issue an order.Meta Platforms ( META.US )Fined between $35 billion and $40 billion; previously, in a lawsuit stemming from the Cambridge Analytica scandal ( Cambridge Analytica ), a jury determined that the company misled consumers in that state regarding user data privacy issues ( Facebook ). During the hearing, ( Meta ) had disagreements with lawyers from New Mexico regarding the appropriate amount of the fine.

Lawyers in New Mexico argue that the court should communicate with the company in the only language that Meta can understand – namely, money and stock prices – pointing out that a fine of $35 to $40 billion would not only have an impact on stock prices but also comply with the due process rights granted to Meta by the constitution. Meta has requested that the judge set the upper limit of the fine at $3.45 billion.

Nike closes down nearly 9% ahead of the market; Q1's revenue falls short of expectations, with weak annual guidance.Nike ( NKE.US )First-quarter revenue was $11.21 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, compared to market estimates of $11.33 billion; earnings per share were $0.48, up from $0.49 in the same period last year; gross margin was 42.8%, compared to 42.2% in the same period last year. Nike expects its revenue to decline by a single-digit percentage in fiscal year 2027, and the pressure on revenue caused by supply chain issues will continue into 2028.

Onsemi modifies the acquisition terms for Synaptics, to be paid in approximately $5.7 billion in cash.Onsemi Semiconductor ( ON.US )Modified its acquisitionSynaptics ( SYNA.US )The transaction terms will involve a payment of approximately $5.7 billion in cash, rather than the previous consideration of about $7 billion in stock. ON Semiconductor will pay $123 per share, and the company expects that this transaction will immediately enhance earnings while providing "value certainty" for the shareholders of Synaptics. The merger is expected to be completed by the middle of 2027, subject to the approval of Synaptics investors and passing regulatory reviews.

Cloudflare launches the open-source multimodal decision-making model Clef. On October 1st local time,Cloudflare ( NET.US )Launched an open-source multimodal decision-making model based on Qwen, namely Clef, which includes two models: Clef and Clef-flash. In the benchmark evaluation of the Jev decision index, Clef holds a leading position; these two models are fully compatible with Jev-API, facilitating developers to conduct tests and verifications.

Volvo's global sales in the third quarter decreased by 10.7% year-on-year.Volvo ( VLVLY.US )In the third quarter, global sales amounted to 141,609 units, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the same period last year. Sales of all-electric models increased by 29%, accounting for 32% of the total vehicles sold.

Nomura: Alibaba’s AI and cloud business growth momentum are expected to continue, raising net profit forecast for fiscal year 2027. According to Nomura’s report,Alibaba ( BABA.US )Alibaba's artificial intelligence and cloud business may continue to maintain a strong growth momentum. Analysts say that the company has established a strong position in almost all key links of the AI value chain, including chips, infrastructure, models, and AI applications. Analysts also mention that Alibaba is placing more emphasis on the profitability of other businesses, including e-commerce, in order to retain cash flow for AI investments. Nomura has raised its forecast for Alibaba's adjusted net profit for the fiscal year 2027 by 7%, mainly driven by improved earnings expectations for its e-commerce business.

"Big Short" Berry: For the welfare of all mankind, the stock market should crash to prevent the listing of OpenAI and Anthropic. "Big Short" Berry (Michael Burry) posted on the community platform X, stating: "For the welfare of all mankind, the market should plummet to stop the listing plans of OpenAI and Anthropic." He warned that these two companies will draw billions of dollars in funds, eventually depleting them, and this may be just the least of the damage they could cause. Berry recently warned that the bubble of AI could burst sooner than he originally anticipated. He is shifting his main short positions in AI stocks to put options in order to achieve more cost-effective leverage in a shorter time frame.

Global Macroeconomics

Foreign media analysis: Non-farm payrolls only need to stop providing a rationale for the Fed to raise interest rates to affect the market. According to reports by foreign media, the non-farm employment report released on Friday coincided with a delicate moment in the interest rate market. The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds finally fell from decades-high levels, and the relatively weak core PCE data alleviated some of the market's concerns about the Fed's recent policy path. Additionally, recent statements by Federal Reserve officials Williams and Jefferson have given more support to dovish views. Therefore, the next set of employment data does not need to show a sharp decline to have an impact; it just needs to stop providing any further reasons for the Fed to raise interest rates.

Related Reading: September's new job creation expected to drop to 90,000: Tonight at 20:30, the real "highlight" will be whether August's data is significantly revised downward.

The EU discusses releasing diesel reserves, with France proposing that Europe release 50 million barrels of diesel, and IEA member states release 50 million barrels of crude oil. According to Reuters, a source familiar with the details of the discussions said on Friday that EU countries discussed a proposal by France to release more diesel reserves on that day in response to pressure from the United States for European countries to increase supply. During a teleconference on Friday, EU governments discussed the French proposal, which involves European countries releasing 50 million barrels of diesel reserves, while members of the International Energy Agency also release 50 million barrels of crude oil.

Countries discussed that any agreement to further release diesel inventories should include a commitment by the United States to avoid unilaterally imposing a diesel export ban. Leaders of G7 member countries may hold a teleconference on Friday afternoon to discuss next steps. Additionally, according to the French presidency, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last night. During the call, Macron expressed the need for joint efforts to address rising fuel prices and ensure the supply of refined oil products. France plans to hold a teleconference with G7 leaders.

The U.S. deploys additional Patriot missiles to Saudi Arabia and Qatar in preparation for a potential escalation of tensions. According to AXIOS, two U.S. officials and a regional source revealed that in recent weeks, the U.S. military has deployed two sets of Patriot missile defense systems to the Middle East to protect the oil and natural gas facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The U.S. aims to assure its allies in these countries that if Trump decides to resume large-scale military actions against Iran, the U.S. will protect their critical energy infrastructure.

Trump said on Thursday that he is considering resuming bombing operations in the coming weeks. He said, "Now I must make a decision: either Iran signs the agreement, or it will no longer exist." If large-scale military operations are resumed, the United States will need Saudi permission to use their airspace. However, if Saudi Arabia believes that their oil facilities cannot be protected, it is unlikely that they will approve the use of their airspace by the United States.

Bank of America strategist Hartnett: Risk aversion may continue, suggesting an increase in bond holdings. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett stated that before the dollar peaks and bond yields fall from decades-high levels, investors are likely to continue to avoid riskier trades. The Bloomberg Dollar Index has risen 3% since its September low, indicating that investors are increasing their cash holdings and reducing leverage. He recommends starting to increase bond holdings, while warning that if small-cap and bank stocks continue to decline, it may mean that the market's optimism about economic growth is weakening, which could ultimately put pressure on tech stocks.

US media: Trump once consulted Grok regarding the arrest of Maduro and deemed his performance “excellent.” On October 1st, American magazine Time published a lengthy report on Trump. The report mentioned that Trump has become increasingly fascinated with artificial intelligence capabilities since returning to the White House. In December last year, Elon Musk secretly returned to the Oval Office in the White House to meet with Trump. During that meeting, Trump spent several hours chatting with Musk’s AI chatbot Grok about issues related to his presidential term and political legacy. Trump also asked Grok what the Venezuelan public would react to if the United States arrested Maduro.

Grok stated that Maduro is very unpopular in Venezuela, and many Venezuelans might celebrate his downfall. The following month, Trump ordered the arrest of Maduro, and subsequently, celebratory activities appeared on the streets of Venezuela. According to several officials, this event made Trump believe that the performance of Grok was outstanding.

Pre-market trading volume of U.S. stocks TOP20

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

(The following times are Beijing time)

20:30 US unemployment rate for September

20:30 U.S. Revised Non-Farm Payroll (in tens of thousands) for September

22:00 US August factory orders monthly rate

22:00, 2026 FOMC: Federal Reserve Chairman of Dallas, Lohgan, delivered a welcome speech at the 5th "Immigration's Macroeconomic Impact Seminar"

The next morning early

01:00 Total number of oil rigs in the United States for the week ending October 2