Bitcoin is expected to see gains for a third consecutive month, but higher yields, rising oil prices, and two major events in November may test its momentum in the fourth quarter.

Bitcoin rose by about 7% in September and by 25% in August.

If Bitcoin closes higher in September, it will be the first time since 2013 that it has seen gains in both August and September. With only two trading days left this month, this closing result will break the previous pattern and lead to three consecutive months of increases for Bitcoin from July to September. This will also result in a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 40%, making it the first quarter with positive growth since the third quarter of 2025.

According to CoinGlass data, the fourth quarter has always been the strongest quarter for Bitcoin, with an average increase of about 77%. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is around $84,000, but the macroeconomic background is quite volatile. Global bond yields are rising, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds exceeding 5.2%, and the MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, is also above 100, near its annual high. Oil prices remain above $90 per barrel, exacerbating inflation concerns, while gold fell by about 3% on Monday to above $4,000 per ounce.

The fourth quarter will also bring two additional tests to liquidity and risk appetite. Anthropic It is reported that IPO is planned for November, which may attract investors' attention and funds to a large-scale new stock listing, although the timing and scale of this issuance have not yet been finalized. The mid-term elections in the United States in November could also bring further volatility, as investors will assess the policy outlook.