JPMorgan Chase stated that the average production cost of Bitcoin, which is around $85,000, is a key level that the current market needs to pay attention to. The bank believes that this level can be regarded as a “soft bottom” for Bitcoin, as it is directly related to the operational pressures on miners and the pace at which they sell their holdings.
Bitcoin had previously been below this production cost range for 280 consecutive days until it rebounded this week and briefly returned to that level. However, BTC then fell back to around $84,000, once again breaking below this cost line.
Why is the cost line important?
JPMorgan Chase pointed out that when the price of Bitcoin is below the average production cost, miners with lower operational efficiency face greater pressure and may need to sell more of their Bitcoin reserves to cover operating expenses. Conversely, if the price returns above the cost level, the cash flow pressure on miners will be alleviated, and the market will also gain more breathing room.
This is also why the industry considers $85,000 to be an important level. However, briefly reaching this level is not enough to change the situation for miners. To see more significant improvements, Bitcoin needs to maintain this price or a higher one for a longer period of time.
The sustainability of the rebound remains to be observed.
From a market performance perspective, this week's rebound has helped Bitcoin briefly recover to a key cost range, but whether it can form a sustained trend remains uncertain. For miners, what is truly important is not a one-time breakthrough, but whether the price can remain stable above production costs.
If BTC continues to operate below cost for an extended period, some miners may continue to increase their sales, thereby putting additional supply pressure on the market.
The target price previously given by JPMorgan Chase
JPMorgan Chase stated in February of this year that, when compared after adjusting for the volatility with gold, Bitcoin's long-term price has the potential to rise to around $266,000.
As early as November 2025, the same bank also estimated that Bitcoin had the potential to rise to around $170,000 within the following 6 to 12 months. At that time, the same method of comparing volatility based on gold was used.
Overall, JPMorgan Chase has not adjusted its long-term optimistic outlook this time, but in the short term, it is more concerned with whether the cost level of $85,000 can be stabilized again. For miners and market sentiment, this level remains a key focus of observation in the near term.
