On September 14, Bitcoin fluctuated around $77,500, with a slight increase over 24 hours. Although the selling pressure was not strong at the time, the price still failed to rise back above $80,000 against the backdrop of a tight macroeconomic environment. Mainstream assets such as Ethereum and XRP also entered a wait-and-see phase, as the market awaits a series of policy decisions and macroeconomic events to be implemented this week.
Multiple events are taking place intensively this week.
This week is crucial for both the crypto market and the U.S. stock market. The U.S. Senate will conduct a procedural vote on the CLARITY bill, followed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also release policy signals one after another. At the same time, Japanese CPI data and the expiration of U.S. quarterly options may also amplify market volatility.
- Tuesday: The U.S. Senate advances a procedural vote on the CLARITY bill
- Wednesday: The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision
- Friday: Japan CPI and the Bank of Japan decide to coincide with the expiration of quarterly options on U.S. stocks
Polymarket Data shows that after Senate Republicans released the revised bill, the market's expectation that the CLARITY bill will become law in 2026 has risen to 31%. This revised text is said to include ethical provisions approved by Trump and is regarded as the final proposal to the Democrats before voting.
ETF Capital flow shows a cooling trend
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a total net inflow of $3.34 billion from August 19 to September 4, pushing the price of Bitcoin up from around $62,000 to near $82,000. However, in the last four trading days of U.S. stocks before September 14, related products experienced a total net outflow of $462.7 million, indicating that institutional buying slowed down after the price increase.
Changes in capital flow indicate that ETF remains an important driving force for market trends, but the willingness to chase prices at high levels is weakening. For the short-term market, this further increases the impact of macroeconomic events.
The selling pressure on the chain has not yet significantly increased.
Compared to the slowdown in the capital flow of ETF, the signals released by on-chain data are relatively stable. The seller risk ratio of Glassnode has decreased from 16 basis points at its peak in August to the current 7 basis points. The proportion of long-term holders in the realized profits has also significantly dropped from 88% in August to 47%.
This set of data generally indicates that long-term coin holders have not been exiting the market in large numbers at the current price level. In other words, although there is a lack of new strong buying pressure in the market, the selling pressure from those who have held coins for a long time is still temporarily controllable.
The Fed's decision remains the biggest variable
Coinpedia Quoting the statement of Giottus.com, the Chief Executive Officer, Vikram Subburaj, it is still the Fed's decision on Wednesday that the market is most concerned about at present. Current pricing indicates that the market expects a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Fed with a probability of about 86%.
Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has approached 4.97%, and the price of Brent crude oil has risen above $107 per barrel, indicating that inflationary pressures have not significantly eased. Against this backdrop, the room for a rebound in risky assets is limited, and the leverage risks in the crypto market may also increase before and after interest rate decisions.
Apart from Bitcoin, the performance of altcoins has been divergent recently. Solana has fallen by 3.97% in the past 7 days, while BNB has fallen by 3.21%; Ethereum, on the other hand, has only risen by 0.47% during the same period. Before significant macroeconomic events occur, the level of $76,600 is considered a short-term support for Bitcoin, with an even deeper support level at around $71,000.
