Foreign media reports that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes that it is still a "reasonable goal" for Bitcoin to reach $400,000 by 2030. This statement comes as Bitcoin fluctuates around $77,000, with the market simultaneously facing pressures from high interest rates and outflows of institutional funds.
The target has been significantly lowered compared to last year.
Armstrong once stated last year that Bitcoin had the potential to rise to $1 million around 2030, with reasons including clearer regulations, increased adoption by governments, and the institutional demand brought about by ETF. In contrast, the target of $400,000 this time is significantly more conservative.
The report mentioned that Armstrong did not provide a new valuation model, nor did they explain in detail why they lowered their target. However, from their stance, it seems they have not shifted to a bearish view; their core judgment is still based on the long-term contraction of Bitcoin supply and cyclical fluctuations.
Still betting on a four-year cycle and halving.
Armstrong believes that the four-year cycle in Bitcoin's history is still at work. According to him, after a period of excitement, the market usually experiences a weak phase that lasts for about a year. Based on the duration of this current downturn, he personally judges that the market bottom may have already been reached.
He also mentioned that the next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in about 18 months. Historically, there has often been a strong trend around the time of halvings, so he still considers this to be an important catalyst in the medium to long term.
Regulation and ETF funds remain short-term variables
In addition to the halving, regulatory progress is seen as another key point of observation. The U.S. Senate is preparing to hold a crucial vote on CLARITY Act on September 15th. Armstrong believes that whether it is Congress driving legislation or the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) advancing through rule-making, the industry may gain more certainty.
Institutional demand remains an important part of their bullish logic. Bitcoin ETF previously recorded net inflows for 9 consecutive days, attracting a total of about $3 billion in funds, but then the flow of capital turned negative again. This also indicates that there is still a clear gap between the long-term price target and the short-term market environment.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is near $77,000, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remains around 5%. Investors are also awaiting new inflation data. For the crypto market, interest rate levels, changes in ETF funds, and regulatory pace will continue to jointly influence future price movements.
