Consistent market expectations indicate that Apple's revenue could rise to approximately $557 billion by the fiscal year 2028, up from $416.2 billion in the fiscal year 2025. Despite ongoing discussions about the "post-iPhone era," Wall Street still believes that iPhone will remain Apple's most core source of revenue in the coming years.

iPhone still accounts for more than half of the revenue

According to the forecasts summarized by Visible Alpha and S& P Global, Apple's revenue for fiscal year 2028 is expected to be around $293.5 billion, which will still account for approximately 53% of the total revenue. In contrast, service business revenue is expected to reach $153.4 billion, accounting for about 28%.

This structure indicates that Apple's growth is not about getting rid of iPhone, but rather about continuing to expand other high-profit businesses on the basis of iPhone. Hardware sales remain the core of revenue, and the ability to continuously monetize existing users is also being enhanced in parallel.

Service business continues to expand.

Apple's official documents for the fiscal year 2025 also reflect this trend. In that fiscal year, iPhone, revenue amounted to 209.6 billion US dollars, with service business revenue at 109.2 billion US dollars, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%, and the company's total revenue was 416.2 billion US dollars.

Apple currently has over 2.5 billion active devices and more than 1.5 billion paid subscriptions. This provides a stable distribution foundation for businesses such as App Store, cloud services, Apple Music, payments, advertising, and AppleCare, and also makes these service businesses Apple's second-largest source of revenue.

AI and the phone replacement cycle remain key points to watch in the future.

The article mentions that the market's assessment of Apple's growth is partly based on the advancement of AI features, new device designs, and the potential demand for device replacements due to the aging of existing devices. Product updates, including Siri AI and Apple Intelligence, are considered important factors supporting the sales of iPhone.

However, based on current consensus expectations, even by the fiscal year 2028, Apple will still rely on iPhone for more than half of its revenue. This means that if the sales of its flagship products continue to slow down, it will be difficult for the expansion of its services business to fully offset this pressure.