Bitcoin has been fluctuating above $80,000, and the range between $80,000 and $82,000 that the market is watching has not yet shown a clear direction. On August 28th, senior trader Peter Brandt indicated that he still holds long positions in Bitcoin, but at the same time reminded that these positions could change within a single trading day.
The price remains below $82,000.
As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at around $79,771, having reached a high of $81,280 at one point during the session before falling back down. In the preceding few trading days, the price had come close to $82,000 several times, but was unable to make a clear breakthrough.
On August 25th, Bitcoin once again surpassed the $80,000 mark for the first time since mid-May. Although it briefly rose to around $81,238 thereafter, the upward momentum was not sustained, and the price remained suppressed below that range in the short term.
From the current trend, there is short-term support around $78,000 to $79,000 at the lower end, while resistance continues to be concentrated in the $80,000 to $82,000 range at the upper end. What the market will be more concerned about next is not a brief break above this level during trading hours, but whether it can maintain itself above this range on a daily time frame.
Brandt claims to still hold a long position in Bitcoin
Brandt disclosed some of his current trading positions on the X platform, which included long positions in Bitcoin. He also holds long positions in wheat, soybeans, corn, soybean meal, sugar, and Mexican pesos, as well as short positions in lean hogs.
However, he did not disclose the entry price of Bitcoin, the size of his position, whether leverage was used, nor did he provide a clear exit point. He also specifically mentioned that these positions could be adjusted within a single day, so this statement is more akin to an immediate disclosure of current holdings rather than a medium- to long-term price forecast.
Brandt The current long position in Bitcoin originated from a technical pattern breakout on August 20th. At that time, he stated that he bought Bitcoin after the reversal head and shoulders pattern was completed and the price broke through the neckline. Prior to that, he believed that the probability of Bitcoin falling again was about 60%, but he changed his initial judgment after the pattern was completed.
Rebound in August received funding support from ETF
Bitcoin has risen by approximately 28% in August, showing a clear rebound from its low of around $57,717 on July 1st. This means that if the increase continues at the end of the month, August will become one of the strongest months for Bitcoin since November 2024.
One of the factors driving this round of rebound is the continuous attraction of capital inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETF. In the week ending August 21, related products saw a total net inflow of approximately $1.92 billion over 5 trading days, with IBIT under BlackRock accounting for a relatively large portion of that amount.
In addition to the funding situation, changes in the U.S. Treasury market have also provided support for risk assets. The U.S. Treasury Department announced an expansion of its repurchase operations for some older long-term Treasurys, the dollar weakened, and long-term yields fell. These factors together improved the market's risk appetite.
The short-term trend remains to be confirmed.
Next, the most direct focus for the market remains whether Bitcoin can effectively hold above the range of $80,000 to $82,000. If it can close above this range and maintain trading there, then the current breakout structure will be further strengthened.
If the price continues to fail to hold above this level, market attention may once again turn to the intraday low of around $78,828, as well as the earlier breakout area. Since Brandt does not disclose a stop-loss level or risk parameters, it is also impossible for outsiders to determine the point at which their trade would be considered invalid.
From the current information, Brandt's stance only indicates that he was still in a long position at the time of disclosure. Whether Bitcoin can continue to rebound ultimately depends on the actual performance of the price around $82,000, as well as whether capital flows will continue to follow suit.
