IBM stated that it has completed an experiment with researchers at the University of Chicago, which it calls "credible quantum advantage." The experiment, using 70 logical qubits and a new error correction method, completed a computation that traditional mainstream simulation methods struggle to handle in approximately 15 minutes, attempting to demonstrate the statistical reliability of the results.
This development does not change the assessment of Bitcoin's short-term security, but it demonstrates that quantum computing continues to advance in error correction and scalability. Whether quantum computing will threaten digital signature systems has been a long-standing concern for the crypto industry.
The experiment was completed using 70 logical qubits.
IBM stated that the research team performed 2,415 logic two-qubit operations and 468 logic T-gate operations in the experiment, reducing the logic error rate to about one-tenth of the physical error rate. The company believes this means that the quantum system not only performed highly complex calculations but also achieved improvements in reliability.
According to Jay Gambetta, IBM's research director, quantum computing has entered the "quantum advantage era." IBM states that this result provides a foundation for verification of subsequent, larger-scale quantum systems.
Verification is the key issue this time.
The quantum advantage experiment has long faced a question: even when a quantum computer provides a result, it is difficult for outsiders to verify its accuracy. IBM stated that this time, instead of using the common random circuit sampling method, they adopted a more structured alternative that allows researchers to identify errors during the computation process while preserving the computational difficulty of the problem itself.
University of Chicago Associate Professor Bill Fefferman stated that verification has always been one of the main challenges in quantum advantage experiments, and one of the goals of this experiment is to improve the outside world's judgment of the credibility of the results.
There is still a significant gap between it and the threat posed to Bitcoin.
The report points out that Bitcoin uses elliptic curve cryptography to complete digital signatures. The research community generally believes that to truly break this type of encryption mechanism, a quantum computer with thousands of logical qubits and fault-tolerant operation is required.
In contrast, IBM showcased 70 logical qubits, which is still far from the threshold commonly considered to pose a threat to Bitcoin's cybersecurity. Therefore, this news is more accurately seen as a step towards "Q-Day" rather than a change in the risk landscape.
IBM previously demonstrated a 120-qubit GHz state in 2025 and launched the 120-qubit Nighthawk processor and the experimental Loon chip. According to its Starling roadmap announced last year, the company aims to build a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, ultimately achieving approximately 200 logical qubits and 100 million quantum operations.
