According to CoinMeta, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate hikes at its October meeting and implement the last hike of this cycle in December. Goldman Sachs notes that since September, the financial conditions index has tightened by about 30 basis points, which is not sufficient to replace an interest rate hike. The firm predicts that inflation in the United States will improve in 2027, and under a baseline scenario, the Fed will not raise rates in March 2027. However, an escalation of tensions in the Middle East that drives up oil prices could still affect subsequent policy paths. This forecast outlines the ultimate path of the Fed's monetary policy, which is to fully achieve inflation control through subsequent rate hikes. The degree of tightening in financial conditions has not yet reached a threshold that could replace an interest rate hike, forcing the Fed to maintain a tight stance to ensure policy effectiveness. The external shocks caused by fluctuations in oil prices add complexity to inflation control and further reinforce the long-term trend of high interest rates. The market needs to abandon the illusion of short-term rate cuts and reprice the Fed's determination to maintain high interest rates over a longer period.