QCP Capital: The Fed remains inactive, with the probability of a rate hike in October dropping to 22%
2026-10-08 14:48:47
CoinMeta data: QCP Capital indicates that in the past three weeks, the macro narrative has rapidly shifted from "interest rate hikes in October" to "the Federal Reserve standing pat." In September, non-farm employment increased by only 29,000 people, below the expected 84,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The year-over-year wage growth rate also fell to 3.0%, reducing the probability of interest rate hikes in October to 22%. However, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remains at around 5.25%. In the crypto market, BTC has rebounded to around $86,700. QCP believes that a solid breakout above $87,200 is needed to confirm the next phase of gains, while ETH continues to fluctuate in the range of $2,650–$2,800. Next, the market will focus on the minutes of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday as well as the CPI data on October 14th.
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