Foreign media commentators believe that Bitcoin's brief rise to $66,921 followed by a failure to hold its ground led to a subsequent decline to around $63,000. This article defines this rebound as a "bull trap": the price failed to break through key resistance levels, and market sentiment quickly weakened.
Global risk assets were generally under pressure that day. South Korea's KOSPI index opened down more than 8%, triggering a circuit breaker, and risk aversion spread. Bitcoin once fell to $62,684. Ethereum and Solana also declined. In the past 24 hours, the crypto market saw liquidations exceeding $670 million, of which approximately $533 million were long liquidations.
The technical outlook remains weak.
The article states that while Bitcoin's recent rebound briefly raised expectations of a recovery, the daily chart structure has not improved. The gains of the previous week have largely been erased, and the price has returned to a weak range. The author believes that the current resistance zone is roughly parallel to the downward resistance formed between May and July of this year, indicating that the market has not yet escaped its downward trend.
Looking at a longer timeframe, Bitcoin has been trading below its 200-day moving average for months, with rebounds quickly followed by selling pressure. The article notes that a 50-day EMA below the 200-day EMA, with the price simultaneously below both, is typically considered a bearish signal.
Indicators and betting biases are trending downwards.
The indicators listed in the article also failed to provide clear signs of a strengthening trend. The RSI was at 46.5, below 50, indicating insufficient buying momentum, but it hadn't entered extreme oversold territory. Based on this, the author concluded that the market is currently closer to a weak consolidation phase than a trend reversal.
The so-called Squeeze Momentum indicator has shown nine consecutive signal bars. The article argues that this usually indicates the market is brewing for the next wave of volatility, but if the previous main trend was downward, the probability of continued decline is often higher. According to the article, the current momentum reading is insufficient to support an upward breakout.
Federal Reserve meeting becomes a short-term variable
On Myriad, the prediction market owned by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt, traders are betting on whether Bitcoin will reach $55,000 or $84,000 first. The article states that approximately 65.7% of bets favor the former, believing there's a higher probability of a drop to $55,000 first.
The article also points out that the market is awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Chairman Kevin Warsh's remarks. Current consensus is that interest rates will remain in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The author believes that without new positive external factors, this rebound is more likely to be a temporary correction within a downward trend.
