Following the temporary halt to military operations between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices fell significantly, easing market concerns about renewed inflation. As a result, global risk assets generally rebounded at the beginning of the week, with the crypto market also showing signs of recovery. Bitcoin remained around $65,000, while Ethereum and several DeFi tokens performed even better.
The decline in oil prices led to a recovery in risk appetite.
Brent crude oil fell from above $100 a barrel to around $87, a single-day drop of more than 7%. US stock index futures rose in tandem, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.36% and S&P 500 futures up 0.80%.
The CoinDesk 20 index has risen 0.1% since midnight UTC and 1.6% in the past 24 hours. The market generally attributes this recovery to a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, believing that falling energy prices have reduced the downward pressure of high inflation on risk assets.
Ahead of the Fed decision, BTC remained stable while ETH showed a slight upward bias.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $65,200, a slight pullback from its opening high of $65,600 on Sunday, but still holding above $64,000. Ethereum rose 0.51% to $1,963 during the same period, continuing to approach the $2,000 mark, its strongest level since early June.
Another key focus for the market this week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. According to CME FedWatch data, after oil prices fell and tensions eased, the market priced in a rate hike this Wednesday to 30.5%, down from 37.4% at the close last Friday.
Short liquidation increased, and futures sentiment remained divided.
Following Bitcoin's rebound, the total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency futures market reached $312 million in the past 24 hours, with the majority of it stemming from forced liquidation of short positions. This indicates that short-term downside bets were squeezed after the spot market recovered.
However, futures traders did not chase the rally across the board. Bitcoin futures open interest fell back to approximately 740,000 BTC after briefly exceeding 760,000 BTC last Friday. Nevertheless, the annualized funding rate and the difference between the 24-hour cumulative trading volume remain positive, indicating that the position structure has not significantly shifted to short.
Ethereum futures data was relatively stronger. Open interest rose to 14.66 million ETH, the highest level since June 7th. Funding rates remained positive, and the difference between open interest and 24-hour volume was the strongest among major crypto assets, reflecting more pronounced active buying.
DeFi tokens led the gains, and altcoin sentiment rebounded.
On Monday, DeFi-related tokens led the gains. AAVE rose 9%, LDO rose 9.39%, and ONDO rose 7%. PUMP surged 12.24% in a single day, bringing its market capitalization close to $800 million, compared to approximately $570 million two weeks ago.
Changes in other derivative positions show an increase in open interest for XLM, LTC, and XMR, while SHIB and AVAX experienced outflows. Overall, except for TRX and BNB, the 24-hour volume difference for most major tokens remains negative, indicating an uneven market recovery.
In terms of volatility, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index remained around 40%, close to its two-month low; Ethereum's corresponding indicator was also in a similar range. In the options market, Bitcoin put option prices remained higher than call option prices, but the one-week skewness had fallen from nearly 13% last Friday to 9%, indicating that short-term hedging demand had cooled somewhat.
