Foreign media reports indicate that Input Output founder Charles Hoskinson believes crypto asset prices may need a 3 to 6-month period of consolidation before gradually reflecting the industry's technological and infrastructure progress. He remains optimistic about the long-term outlook but anticipates a challenging market environment over the next 6 to 12 months.
Price recovery is still slower than industry progress.
Hoskinson described the current phase as the late stage of a bear market. He noted that the crypto market's Fear & Greed Index is around 24, and the Bitcoin spot ETF, with approximately $80 billion in assets under management, has seen a net outflow of about $4.5 billion. According to him, market price performance is still lagging behind changes in industry fundamentals.
He believes the next rebound will not rely primarily on the old narrative of "faster blockchain." Simply competing on throughput and confirmation speed is no longer sufficient to support larger-scale user growth.
He specifically named Ripple, Circle, and Tether.
Hoskinson believes the next phase is more likely to be driven by regulated on-chain financial infrastructure. He cites Canton, Ripple, Circle, Tether, and Binance as examples of institutions connecting traditional businesses with blockchain networks.
In his view, the on-chaining of real-world assets will be the main source of incremental growth in the coming years. As issues such as compliance, legal contracts, jurisdictional changes, system upgrades, and consumer protection are gradually incorporated into the infrastructure design, the applicability of on-chain finance will expand.
He predicts that over $10 trillion worth of RWA could enter the ecosystem in the next 3 to 5 years, bringing 1 billion to 2 billion new users. However, this assessment is his personal prediction and not a fact that has already occurred.
Regulation and AI are considered two major variables.
Hoskinson also considers the passage of the US Clarity Act as a key point to watch for the market going forward. He believes that if the bill passes, capital inflows may accelerate, leading to a significant rally; however, the initial rise may not be stable, and the market may subsequently decline.
He also mentioned that AI could become a source of short-term risk. If the AI bubble bursts and triggers a deep recession, the crypto market may also come under pressure; if the AI industry continues to expand, digital assets may gradually weaken their correlation with tech stocks over the next 24 to 36 months.
Regarding the competitive landscape, he believes the industry rivals are no longer just public blockchains like Ethereum, Solana, or Cardano. Large institutions such as Google and JPMorgan Chase are also making related moves. According to him, the bigger question now is whether the crypto industry can maintain the original principles of decentralized systems as it scales up.
