Anbin Research indicates that as global monetary tightening slows down, even though the market has already factored in the possibility of a Fed interest rate hike in December, Bitcoin may still receive support.

On Tuesday, Anbin Research stated that if the pace of interest rate hikes continues to slow down, Bitcoin may find support before major central banks begin to cut rates. In a report shared on Tuesday with Cointelegraph, the institution noted that among the 10 central banks it tracks, 8 have raised interest rates over the past six months, including Sweden's rate hike announced on November 4th; since reaching a peak in July, the momentum for tightening monetary policy has begun to weaken.

The report states: "Whether this slowdown will continue until the beginning of 2027 will be key in determining whether the macroeconomic environment is less unfavorable for cryptocurrencies."

Binance also mentioned the previous cycle. Bitcoin (BTC) hit its bottom in November 2022 and turned positive in returns after six months in February 2023, at a time when no central bank in the index had yet begun to cut interest rates.

Also in 2024, monetary tightening measures drove Bitcoin to record the “strongest” six-month return of that cycle, with a gain of over 160% in March, according to Binance.

The report adds: "In each case, BTC fluctuates in line with the direction of global policies, rather than with the level of those policies."

After Waller's speech, the probability of a rate hike in December has increased.

A rate hike in the United States is still possible. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller stated on Tuesday that he favors a 25-basis-point hike in December, and if core inflation remains high, a 50-basis-point hike would also be considered. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December rose from 76.3% to 96.3% on Tuesday.

In a report on November 2nd, Bitwise also believed that a slowdown in economic growth expectations could ultimately lead central banks to adopt more accommodative monetary policies, which might create a more favorable environment for Bitcoin.

According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin has fallen by 3.5% in the past week, and its decline over the past year has expanded to 30%. This world's first cryptocurrency is currently trading at $74,131, which is 41% lower than its historical high of $126,198.

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