U.S. President Donald Trump once promised voters dissatisfied with inflation that he would bring gasoline prices below $2 per gallon within his first year in office.

During his campaign for re-election in September 2024, Trump delivered a speech at the New York Economic Club, saying, "My plan will reduce energy prices by half, or even more, within 12 months of my taking office."

He said to the voters, "Energy was originally the cause of our problems. Energy will put us back on track. This means we need to bring down gasoline prices to below $2 per gallon."

But when voters go to the polling stations on Tuesday, energy prices will still be a concern. Patrick Dehan, head of oil analysis at GasBuddy, said that gasoline and diesel prices are expected to reach record highs on election day.

Dehan said, "The price has never been this high at this time of year before."

GasBuddy data shows that on Friday, the national average price of gasoline in the United States was $4.20 per gallon, which is nearly 40% higher than the same period last year. The price of diesel, which is crucial for transportation and agriculture, has soared by about 70% over the past year to $6.32 per gallon.

According to the data from AAA, during the 2022 U.S. mid-term elections, which coincided with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting energy crisis, the retail price of gasoline was $3.80 per gallon.

“Self-inflicted blunder”

Dehan said, "Trump blocked his own path. In December last year, we predicted that 2026 would be the cheapest year for gasoline since 2020. There was no need for any effort at all. Clearly, things did not develop in that direction."

Since Trump launched a joint attack on Iran with Israel on February 28, fuel prices have begun to soar. Tehran subsequently launched a series of attacks on oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz, severely disrupting oil transportation through this vital route.

At a rally in Michigan last Sunday, Trump told voters that in order to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, rising fuel prices were a "very small price to pay."

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers ( Taylor Rogers ) said in a statement: "Once this conflict ends, gasoline prices will drop significantly, and the terrorist regime in Iran will no longer possess nuclear weapons."

The White House stated that, adjusted for inflation, gasoline prices were once higher around some past election days.

Since this summer, with the U.S. military helping vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, exports via that strait have seen a rebound. However, the instability in the Middle East has been compounded by attacks by Houthi militants on Saudi refineries, as well as Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries. Trump once promised to end this war in the first week of his second term, but the conflict remains stuck in a deadlock that is difficult to break.

ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods ( Darren Woods ) said to CNBC on Friday, after the company announced huge profits due to the turbulent situation: "Frankly speaking, diesel is the key point of tension here, as it is crucial for economic growth."

Airlines have raised ticket prices to cover the high costs associated with aviation fuel, which is their largest expense after labor costs. This also undermines efforts to curb inflation.

Political pressure

Before the elections on Tuesday, Trump faced political pressure from Republicans to take action to lower fuel prices. The cost of diesel is harming major agricultural states such as Iowa, which supported him almost unanimously during his presidential campaign. The Senate race in that state has also become closely contested.

Senator Chuck Grassley ( Chuck Grassley, a Republican from Iowa ) lobbied for ways to help farmers in his state, and Trump once considered banning diesel exports. However, he ultimately did not go through with it, as that could also lead to higher gasoline prices.

As an alternative, Trump signed an executive order allowing truck drivers to use tax-free off-road diesel on U.S. highways and announced the launch of a $8 billion aid program to help farmers affected by high fuel prices.

Subsequently, Trump also reached a controversial agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, allowing Moscow to export approximately 6 million barrels of diesel to global markets by the end of November.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and even some Republican senators, have criticized this agreement as a reward for Russia's aggressive actions. Energy analysts say that the volume of Russian diesel exports is small compared to global demand and will not have a substantial impact on prices.

Recently, crude oil prices have risen ahead of the elections. Trump stated that he would not resume strikes against Iran before the mid-term elections. However, the market has already factored in the risk of renewed conflicts after the voting on Tuesday. International Brent crude oil prices rose by more than 13% in October, while US West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices increased by 15%.

Dehan said, 'If the situation escalates, it will obviously put upward pressure on prices on the eve of Thanksgiving, which is also a time when Americans have a strong tradition of driving to friends' and family's homes for gatherings.'