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Chain analysis firm Glassnode states that long-term Bitcoin holders possess approximately 4 million Bitcoins, with the purchase prices of these Bitcoins ranging from $85,000 to $118,000, and the majority of them were purchased in 2025.
Bloomberg Intelligence ( Bloomberg Intelligence ) reports that the average cost for US spot Bitcoin ( ETF ) holders is slightly below $82,000, while the trading price of Bitcoin is around $81,600.
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against; prior to this, traders were betting that the probability of a rate hike in December was over 70%.
Glassnode stated in a report that long-term Bitcoin holders, who currently possess approximately 4 million Bitcoins purchased at prices ranging from $85,000 to $118,000, are in a loss-making position. If the price rebounds to near this level, many of them may decide to sell.
Glassnode defines long-term holders as investors who have held the coins for more than 155 days. The institution stated that the majority of this large portion of holdings was purchased in 2025. The report was released on Wednesday, before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and mentioned that more than half of the purchase prices of all long-term holders are higher than the current price.
Glassnode wrote on X: "85,000 dollars has been keeping Bitcoin from rising. Since January, there have only been 5 days when Bitcoin's closing price was above this level, and it has never exceeded it for more than 3 consecutive days. This is indeed a level that is very difficult to break through. For more in-depth analysis, see our latest Week on Chain reports."
Calculated at the current price of Bitcoin, which is around $81,400, this position is worth approximately $326 billion. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has risen by 1.2%, but it is still about 35% lower than its historical high of $126,080.
According to Glassnode, the range of $84,000 to $85,000 has been used four times this year to push Bitcoin back down. Since January, there have only been 5 days when Bitcoin's closing price was above this range. The last time Bitcoin broke through this range was in September, reaching a high of $87,100.
Holders of ETF are also approaching break-even. Glassnode estimates that the average price paid for their holdings of spot Bitcoin in the United States is $81,500. According to an analyst from Bloomberg Intelligence ETF, on Wednesday, this figure was slightly below $82,000, and they added that since the end of August, Bitcoin has been hovering around this level.
According to the chart from Seyffart, as of Monday, the average unrealized loss for holders of ETF was approximately $2.63 billion. In his response, he stated that this estimate only tracks the inflows and outflows of fund funds and does not include the actual prices paid by buyers in the secondary market.
Interest Rates, Capital Flows, and Arbitrage Trading
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate between 3.75% and 4.00% with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against. The opponents included member Lisa Cook and the president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, Beth Hammack, who advocated for an interest rate hike. Before the resolution, traders believed that the probability of another 25-basis-point hike in December had exceeded 70%.
HashKey Senior Researcher Tim Sun believes that the market has, to some extent, already absorbed the expectations of a rate hike in December. He told Decrypt: "What truly limits the performance of Bitcoin is the fact that U.S. Treasury yields and real interest rates remain high, which significantly increases the opportunity cost for investors to hold risky assets."
According to CNBC, on Thursday at noon, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds was slightly below 5%, lower than 5.05% at the close on Wednesday, and also below the 52-week high of 5.37% set on October 7th.
Sun added that the financing rates for perpetual Bitcoin futures have declined, squeezing the returns on cash arbitrage transactions. Such transactions typically involve going long on spot Bitcoin and going short on futures. Galaxy Research found that as these transactions cooled down, 9 hedge funds and banks reduced their open positions in spot Bitcoin by 68,000 units, while wealth management platforms and sovereign funds saw an increase.
This week, there has been a rebound in capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. SoSoValue data shows that from Monday to Wednesday, a total of approximately $424 million flowed into these funds, compared to $635 million that flowed out on October 22nd.
Sun said, "Any rebound above $85,000 could face pressure from long-term holders to sell in order to recover their losses." This view is consistent with Glassnode.
However, both indicate that the selling pressure is not considered high. Glassnode noted that since August, the losses incurred by holders during each pullback have been decreasing: at the low point in August, the losses incurred in a single day were about $630 million more than the profits; whereas during a pullback around October 24th, the largest single-day net loss was approximately $27 million.
Sun said, "The core issue facing the market at present is not panic selling, but rather a lack of sufficient new buying interest to support a sustained rebound."
On the downside, Glassnode pointed out that on Binance, there were approximately 42 million US dollars of buy orders placed between $78,000 and $79,000, while the average cost for new buyers was $75,800.
Sun It is expected that before macro liquidity improves and ETF resumes sustained net inflows, Bitcoin will continue to trade between $75,000 and $85,000 in the short term. He said whether the selling pressure around $85,000 can be absorbed "will become an important signal to determine whether the market can strengthen again."
