Eli Lilly reported third-quarter revenue of $24.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 39%, and an adjusted earnings per share of $7.48, both far exceeding expectations. Mounjaro and Zepbound contributed 66% of the total revenue, with Mounjaro generating $10.72 billion in revenue, a 65% increase. The company raised its full-year revenue forecast for the third time this year to between $91 billion and $92 billion. buoyed by these results, Eli Lilly's stock price rose 4.3% before the market opened.
Lilly Corporation, leveraging the strong demand for its weight loss and diabetes medications, delivered third-quarter results that far exceeded Wall Street's expectations and once again raised its full-year outlook, further consolidating its leading position in the global GLP-1 pharmaceutical market.
The company's revenue in the third quarter reached $24.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39%, exceeding analysts' average forecast of $22.5 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $7.48, also significantly higher than the expected $5.59. Boosted by this, Eli Lilly's stock price rose 3.7% in early trading on Thursday, with the annual cumulative increase expanding to about 20%.
Eli Lilly has raised its full-year revenue guidance to $91 billion to $92 billion, up from the previous range of $85 billion to $87 billion. This is the third time this year that the company has raised its full-year outlook. At the same time, taking into account the related expenses incurred from recent acquisitions, the company has slightly lowered its adjusted earnings per share guidance to $35 to $36.
Boosted by this, Eli Lilly's stock price rose by more than 4% before the market opened.
Mounjaro and Zepbound drive together, contributing over 60% of the revenue
The core driving force behind the third-quarter performance came from two GLP-1 star drugs. The diabetes treatment drug Mounjaro achieved revenue of $1.072 billion, a year-on-year increase of 65%, exceeding the market's expectation of $995 million; the weight loss drug Zepbound generated revenue of $535 million, an 8.6% increase from the previous quarter, also higher than the expected $501 million. Together, these two products accounted for as high as 66% of Eli Lilly's total revenue.
Part of the strong performance of Zepbound is attributed to significant changes in U.S. healthcare policies. Starting from July 1st of this year, Medicare included weight-loss medications in its coverage for the first time. According to Eli Lilly, there are currently about 500,000 patients using Foundayo or Zepbound through what is known as the “Bridge program.” As estimated by JPMorgan analyst Akash Tewari in a research report earlier this week, this program is expected to contribute approximately $4 billion in revenue to Eli Lilly by the end of the year.
Lilly's President of Global Markets, Ilya Yuffa, stated at last month's Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference that "the advancement of the Bridge project within Medicare may be the most important single factor in improving drug accessibility."
Oral weight loss medication Foundayo underperformed expectations in its initial market launch
Despite overall impressive performance, Eli Lilly's weight loss oral medication Foundayo did not meet market expectations and became a weak point this quarter. The revenue from this drug in the third quarter was 184 million US dollars, which is lower than the 299 million US dollars expected by FactSet and only slightly higher than the 98 million US dollars recorded in its first quarter of sales (the second quarter).
Analysts point out that Foundayo is facing competitive pressure from Novo Nordisk's weight loss oral medications, which entered the market several months earlier than Foundayo and have already gained a certain first-mover advantage. According to JPMorgan Chase data, Eli Lilly currently holds about 64% of the US prescription weight loss drug market share, but the competitive landscape in the weight loss oral medication segment has not yet been fully established.
Divergent performance among other categories of drugs: Cardiovascular and diabetes oral medications Jardiance generated $1.58 billion in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 65%; breast cancer medications Verzenio achieved $1.51 billion in revenue, in line with expectations; traditional diabetes medications Trulicity had revenue of $904 million, a year-on-year decline of 14%, continuing the trend of shrinkage.
Positive progress in the R&D pipeline, with frequent news of regulatory approvals
Within the third quarter, Eli Lilly made several advancements at the regulatory level. The US FDA approved a new indication for Mounjaro to reduce cardiovascular risk in adult patients with type 2 diabetes; it also approved the once-weekly basal insulin Onswik, a combination therapy for breast cancer Inluriyo, and an extended indication for Jaypirca in untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia.
In terms of the R&D pipeline, Eli Lilly disclosed several positive clinical data: in a phase III head-to-head trial, retatrutide demonstrated superior efficacy in adult patients with type 2 diabetes compared to semaglutide 2mg; Ebglyss showed positive results in a phase III study for moderate to severe hand and foot atopic dermatitis; EloraTZP also had positive phase II results in patients with obesity combined with type 2 diabetes, and the company plans to initiate a phase III trial in the fourth quarter of 2026.
R&D expenses for this quarter amounted to $4.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%. In addition, due to the acquisition of psychedelic drug developer AtaiBeckley and vaccine biotechnology company Curevo, the company recorded approximately $4.2 billion in amortization costs for ongoing research projects (IPR &D), which is also the main reason why the net profit of $6.5 billion for this quarter was lower than recent quarterly levels.
