A report from Bitwise predicts that in the next decade, Bitcoin will become the best-performing asset among major institutional assets. Driven by continued adoption by institutions, increasing demand for hard assets, and limited new supply, its compound annual growth rate is expected to reach 34.3%.
San Francisco, October 28, 2026 / PRNewswire / -- As of September 30, 2026, the global crypto asset management company Bitwise Asset Management, which manages assets worth $14 billion, released its annual report "2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" today. The report provides institutional investors with a clear, data-driven forecast covering the expected returns, volatility, and drawdowns of Bitcoin over the next decade.
Key Points of the "Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for Bitcoin" Report:
- Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin will become the best-performing asset among major institutional assets over the next decade. Bitwise estimates that by 2036, the price of Bitcoin will rise to $1.6 million, with a compound annual growth rate of 34.3%. This level is approximately five times the predicted return on investment for U.S. stocks, which is 6.7%, and also three times that of private equity, which ranks as the second-best asset class with a growth rate of 10.8%.
- Sustained interest from institutions could exceed the new supply of Bitcoin. The World Bank estimates that institutional investors control approximately $147 trillion in assets, and Bitwise predicts that they will allocate 1% to 5% of this amount to Bitcoin over the next decade. This means there would be a demand of $1.5 trillion to $7 trillion, while Bitcoin's annual new supply is only about $14 billion.
- Bitcoin showed signs of maturing during a volatile year in 2026. Although the 50% decline from Bitcoin's high in October 2025 to its low in June 2026 was painful, this drop was significantly less severe than previous cyclical retracements from peak to trough, which had reached 86%, 84%, and 77% respectively. Bitwise indicates that this suggests the asset is maturing and gaining broader institutional support.
- The impact of the four-year cycle will diminish over time. As the investor base expands and becomes more institutionalized, the intensity of the downturns will decrease; however, investors should still expect this asset to be volatile and cyclical.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated: "Compared to last year, we are more bullish on Bitcoin today. Everything that has happened over the past 12 months – from a milder four-year correction, to continuous progress in regulation, to a significant increase in demand for hard assets such as gold – indicates that Bitcoin will continue to achieve long-term success. This is why we have raised our 10-year target price from $1.3 million to $1.6 million."
Hougan added, "Over the past 17 years, Bitcoin has grown from an unproven idea into an asset with a market value of nearly $2 trillion, and it is now held by some of the most respected investors around the world. The early stages were the most difficult part – now is the time to watch it mature and thrive."
Bitwise Research Director Ryan Rasmussen stated: "Bitcoin is likely to remain a highly volatile asset, accompanied by sharp declines, but all signs indicate that these fluctuations will diminish as institutional adoption deepens. With the inflow of institutional funds, increasing demand for assets that serve as stores of value, and limited supply, we expect Bitcoin to become the best-performing asset among major global institutional assets from now until 2036."
For more information, please visit: https :// bitwiseinvestments.com / crypto-market-insights /2027- bitcoin-long-term-capital-market-assumptions.
Risks and Important Information
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