On Monday, Anthropic announced its S-1 registration documents, bringing the company one step closer to its long-awaited public listing, which the market now almost certainly expects to happen this year.
On the prediction market platform Kalshi, speculators believe that there is a 95% probability that this artificial intelligence giant will officially announce its initial public offering (IPO) by the end of 2026.
Kalshi will officially define IPO as occurring in any of the following situations: the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announces the effectiveness of the S-1 document, IPO completes the pricing, or the exchange assigns a stock code to that stock.
The S-1 file of Anthropic indicates that the stock code planned to be used in the NASDAQ stock market is “ANT”.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the goal for Anthropic is to start trading during the week of November 16. Traders on Kalshi believe that the probability of the company starting trading before that time is only 14%.
On the Polymarket platform, traders are giving a probability of 69%, which means that Anthropic will be listed on a public exchange and trading will begin before November 20th.
Disclosure:CNBC has a business relationship with Kalshi, which includes customer acquisition cooperation and a small amount of equity investment.
