Apple's first foldable phone, iPhone and Duo, was snapped up as soon as it hit the market, with demand far exceeding expectations. Apple has asked its supply chain to accelerate production and place an additional 30% order. Core suppliers such as Hon Hai, TSMC, and Shin-Etsu Corporation are expected to see a significant increase in their performance.
iPhone and Duo were officially released on October 23rd, and all models were sold out on that day. The second wave of shipments is expected to be delayed until January 22, 2027. The scalper prices in the second-hand market once reached as high as $3,068, which is a premium of about 33% over the lowest purchase price of $2,300, reflecting the strong demand in the market.
Affected by this, major market research institutions have raised their forecasts for iPhone and Duo shipments. This year's inventory levels have been revised from the original 6 million units to 8 to 10 million units, while shipments for 2027 are expected to reach 33 million units. The industry predicts that iPhone and Duo are likely to capture about 40% of the global foldable phone market next year and may replace Samsung as the leader in the new generation of foldable phones.
Sold out as soon as it was made available, demand far exceeded Apple's expectations.
iPhone Duo On the first day of sale, all models were sold out, and the second wave of shipments will not be available until early next year. The gap in supply was greater than what the market expected. Industry analysts point out that the initial stock preparation was severely insufficient, partly due to limitations in assembly yield, and partly because consumer demand far exceeded Apple's original forecasts.
Industry insiders point out that consumer products have a established lifecycle, and "the longer it takes, the less favorable it is for capturing market share." Apple's order to the supply chain to accelerate production and add an additional 30% of orders at this time has clear market strategic logic. How to rapidly increase production capacity in the short term is the biggest challenge Apple is currently facing.
Supply chain bottleneck: Bearing production capacity and assembly yield rate are the keys
In terms of supply chain division of labor, the entire assembly is exclusively undertaken by Hon Hai for iPhone and Duo. The core processor chips are manufactured by TSMC, while the most critical hinge bearing components are supplied by a joint venture between Hon Hai and Shin-Nippon. The second supplier is the American company Amphenol (Amphenol).
The industry believes that the core bottleneck of the current insufficient production capacity lies in the limited production capacity of bearings, coupled with the high difficulty of assembling complete units. If the yield issue can be resolved as soon as possible, the shortage situation will be effectively alleviated, and the waiting period for consumers is expected to be shortened. The performance of supply chain manufacturers such as Hon Hai, TSMC, and Shin-Etsu will also benefit significantly as a result.
The folding machine market landscape may be on the verge of being reshaped.
From a more macroscopic market impact perspective, the success of iPhone and Duo is not only of great significance to Apple itself but may also reshape the competitive landscape of the entire foldable phone market. Market research institutions predict that with the revised shipment targets, Apple is expected to capture approximately 40% of the global foldable phone market share in 2027, posing a direct challenge to Samsung's dominant position in the market.
In addition, the market enthusiasm driven by Apple's entry is expected to encourage other non-Apple brand manufacturers to increase their investment in foldable phone products, thereby accelerating the expansion of the overall foldable phone market penetration rate. The smartphone market may gradually emerge from its downturn as a result. For the supply chain, this means a continuous improvement in the visibility of medium and long-term orders.
