Newsletter

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $137.9 million on Friday, but still had a net inflow of about $301 million for the week, ending a two-week streak of net outflows.
• As of October, these funds have still seen a cumulative net outflow of approximately $314 million, while Ethereum ETF has experienced a cumulative net outflow of about $1.18 billion this month.
• Bitcoin fell 1.1% to around $80,490, and Myriad traders have raised the probability of it falling to $77,500 this month to 43%.

Bitcoin ETF managed to close higher after a week of fluctuations.

According to the tracking data of ETF under Decrypt, American spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $137.9 million on Friday, marking the second consecutive trading day with capital outflows. Over the two days, the total net outflow amounted to approximately $773.5 million, eroding the net inflow of $1.07 billion that occurred from Monday to Wednesday.

Even so, these funds still recorded a net inflow of approximately $301 million for the entire week, ending a period of two consecutive weeks of net outflows.

However, October is generally considered a seasonally favorable month for Bitcoin holders, but currently, there is still a net outflow. These funds once turned to a monthly net inflow during the week, but a capital outflow of $635.6 million on Thursday – the largest single-day outflow of October – brought it back to negative again. So far this month, there has been a cumulative net outflow of about $314 million. The cumulative net inflow is $57.6 billion, and the total net assets are $100.2 billion.

Ethereum ETF managed to record a meager net inflow of $4.4 million on Friday, but for the entire week, there was a net outflow of approximately $221 million, resulting in a cumulative net outflow of about $1.18 billion for October. Solana ETF did not record any net flow on Friday; previously on Thursday, there was a net outflow of $8.9 million; this month, the cumulative net outflow is about $68 million.

Spot cryptocurrencies ETF hold underlying assets such as Bitcoin or Ethereum and are traded on stock exchanges just like ordinary stocks, allowing investors to gain exposure through regular brokerage accounts. Since their launch in January 2024, Bitcoin funds have attracted $57.6 billion in net inflows; Ethereum funds have attracted $12.7 billion in net inflows since their launch in July of the same year. Solana funds were launched at the end of last year. As issuers disclose the flow of funds daily, and a large portion of the capital comes from institutions and financial advisors, these figures have become an important indicator of investor sentiment.

Before entering the weekend, prices weakened. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin fell 1.1% in the past 24 hours on Saturday, to around $80,490, with a weekly decline of 1.2%.

Ethereum fell 2.6% to around $2,344, while Solana fell 2.8% to around $101. The total market value of the entire crypto market declined by 1.2% to $2.79 trillion. This weak trend emerged after a sell-off in global markets in the middle of this week, when oil prices broke above $111 per barrel, and AI stocks fell.

Traders on the prediction market Myriad, developed by Dastan (the parent company of Decrypt), have become more pessimistic about Bitcoin's trend at the end of October. They currently believe that the probability of Bitcoin falling to $77,500 before the end of the month is 43%, up from 32% the previous day; the probability of it falling to $75,000 is 18%.

The probability of Bitcoin breaking above $87,500 has dropped from 17% to 10%. Solana The bulls are only slightly in the lead: the probability of it reaching $160 first rather than $40 is 51.6%, which is lower than the previous 54.9%. The probability of Ethereum reaching $3,000 first rather than $1,500 remains at 61.3%.

This week started off on an optimistic note, with JPMorgan Asset Management previously predicting that Bitcoin's annualized return rate could reach 10% over the next decade. However, since then, Bitcoin has entered what analysts refer to as a "wait-and-see" mode.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for reference only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.