Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on Russia this week, targeting key oil infrastructure, and indicated that Kiev intends to prevent the Kremlin from increasing diesel exports against the wishes of U.S. President Donald Trump.
According to official media reports, on Sunday alone, more than 1,000 Ukrainian drones launched attacks on Russia, which was one of the largest attacks of the year. The attacks set fire to an oil export terminal located in Saint Petersburg, Russia's second-largest city and the hometown of President Vladimir Putin.
Kiev has ended its brief compliance with the ceasefire in energy supplies between Russia and Ukraine announced by Trump on October 11. Moscow ignored this ceasefire from the very beginning, and Kiev vowed retaliation.
Tatyana Mitrova, an expert on the Russian oil industry at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, stated that Ukraine's drone attacks have reached a scale, scope, and effectiveness sufficient to paralyze Russia's diesel exports. Before these attacks, Russia was the world's second-largest supplier of diesel, second only to the United States.
Kpler Matt Smith, the head of product research, stated that therefore, the agreement reached between Trump and Putin aimed at increasing Russian diesel exports is likely to have fallen through. Smith said, "In the absence of an energy ceasefire, it seems unlikely that they will be able to bring back the amount of diesel supply they discussed into the market."
According to data from the Polish Warsaw-based open-source intelligence company Rochan Consulting, Kiev's attacks on Russian refineries and related petroleum infrastructure nearly tripled in July, reaching 31 incidents, compared to 11 in January.
According to Kpler data, these attacks caused Russia's diesel exports in September to decline by more than 75% year-on-year, to 141,000 barrels per day, compared to 608,000 barrels per day during the same period last year.
In response, Moscow banned exports in July to ensure domestic supply. This month, the Kremlin resumed shipments in order to fulfill the agreement between Trump and Putin.
Under the diesel agreement reached by Trump to ease surging fuel prices, the Kremlin agreed to supply about 75,000 barrels per day to the global market in October and 124,000 barrels per day in November. However, Mitrova stated that these export volumes are merely a drop in the bucket compared to the total demand.
Mitrova said that Ukrainians are now frequently launching cluster attacks with hundreds of drones, rather than just dozens as in the early stages of the war. They are also carrying out strikes further into Russian territory. In July, Kiev hit Russia's largest refinery – the Omsk refinery, located deep in Siberia near the Kazakhstan border, over 1000 miles from Ukraine.
She also stated that Ukraine has learned to target more complex and difficult-to-repair refining equipment. She said that destroying a fuel storage tank can be repaired in just a few weeks, but replacing secondary refining units, for example, requires a supply chain outside of Russia.
Mitrova said, 'You cannot place an order directly with Alibaba. You need to place the order in advance, so it is not possible to get these devices quickly. You will have to take on the risks for all parties involved, because [the counterparty] is violating the sanctions.'
She said, "If the key equipment is destroyed, we will have to wait for at least a few months."
With less than two weeks until the midterms, Trump blames the soaring diesel prices on Ukraine, claiming that this could jeopardize the Republican Party's electoral prospects.
Data from the American Automobile Association ( AAA ) shows that on Tuesday, the average price of diesel fuel across the United States was $6.32 per gallon, which is nearly 75% higher than the same period last year.
But the diesel market was under pressure long before Trump decided to go to war with Iran in late February. Tehran's attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as its Houthi armed allies' strikes against the petroleum infrastructure of the United States' Gulf Arab allies, have disrupted fuel exports from the Middle East.
Smith stated that diesel exports through the Strait of Hormuz have decreased by about 540,000 barrels per day compared to last year. Due to reduced supplies from Russia and the Middle East, global diesel exports have fallen by about 1 million barrels per day, he said.
Trump's options for reducing fuel prices are limited. The fundamental problem is that two wars with no sign of ending in the short term have led to a shortage of refining capacity. American refiners are already operating at full capacity to fill the gap as much as possible.
The International Energy Agency warned this month that diesel supply may remain tight until 2027. Smith said, "The diesel shortage is likely to continue in the coming months, and prices will also remain high."
