Chainalysis claims that Bitcoin capital inflows into the United States will turn into net inflows in 2026

The United States recorded a net inflow of Bitcoin for the first time since 2022. According to the 2026 reporting period data from Chainalysis, transfers exceeding 10 million US dollars resulted in a net inflow of 53,200 Bitcoins into the country.

• Large-value Bitcoin transfers drove a net inflow in the United States, while transfers of less than $10,000 still showed a net outflow.
• The total scale of the US crypto economy is $2.78 trillion, a decrease of 2.2% compared to the previous reporting period.
• Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the United States' share of global Bitcoin activities has increased.
• Reports indicate that while American institutions continue to increase their holdings of Bitcoin, US dollar stablecoins are further expanding overseas.

In a study published on October 14th titled "North America: The Inside Story of Agentic Commerce's Growth," Chainalysis indicated that over the 12-month period up to June 2026, institutional buying drove a shift back to a net inflow of Bitcoin in the United States.

The report shows that for various types of transfers tracked, transactions below $10,000 consistently show more bitcoins leaving the United States than entering it. For larger transfers, however, the pattern is reversed. The company attributes this to institutions buying bitcoins, while most retail investors are selling them.

Institutional transfers drive Bitcoin into the United States

Research indicates that within the largest transaction range, transfers exceeding $10 million contributed to a net inflow of 53,200 bitcoins. The report also discusses the recovery of net inflows in the United States, which is juxtaposed with the steady increase in the U.S.' share of global Bitcoin activity since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024.

When comparing Bitcoin activity across countries, the company combined the proportions of Bitcoin in service inflows, exchange transactions, and cross-border net income into one index. The results show that activity in the United States is becoming increasingly concentrated on Bitcoin, while other markets rely more on US dollar-pegged stablecoins.

Despite there being buying interest, reports indicate that the scale of the US crypto economy has declined by 2.2% to $2.78 trillion. Chainalysis states that, nonetheless, the US has managed to retain most of the expansion achieved in the previous statistical period; during that period, the scale of the US crypto economy nearly doubled.

The company believes that ETF, tokenized assets, and stablecoins have helped maintain activity in the market during downturns. The United States remains the largest national-level crypto economy within the scope of this study.

US Bitcoin ETF receives new allocation after capital outflows

Recent fund capital flow reports have indicated that there has been new buying activity through U.S.-listed investment products, although the daily allocation scale fluctuates.

According to a report by crypto.news on September 4th, based on data from SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin in the United States attracted $730.9 million in capital inflows on September 3rd, marking the largest single-day inflow since January 14th.

Reports indicate that BlackRock’s IBIT received $454 million in inflows, followed by ARK Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB, which saw $138 million in inflows. Fidelity’s FBTC attracted approximately $74 million in inflows. The total net assets of these funds amounted to $103.34 billion, which is equivalent to 6.32% of the Bitcoin market value at that time.

The same report also stated that since the launch of these products in January 2024, the cumulative net inflow has reached $55.44 billion. Before this round of buying in September, there was a outflow of $236 million on September 1st, of which approximately $201 million came from IBIT; subsequently, on September 2nd, a total of about $101 million flowed back into all funds.

In an earlier report on August 8th, based on Arkham data, Morgan Stanley increased its holdings of Bitcoin ETF by 232.5 bitcoins, worth approximately $15.05 million. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was below $65,000, and this increase brought its holdings to about 6,563 bitcoins.

According to this report, Arkham also traced that on a trading day in early August, approximately $111 million flowed into BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, $33 million flowed into Fidelity products, and $9 million flowed into Franklin Templeton funds.

Morgan Stanley announced on April 8 the launch of its Bitcoin trust product, with the trading code MSBT. The bank stated in the product disclosure that the fund holds Bitcoin, but holding its shares does not constitute direct ownership of the cryptocurrency.

US dollar stablecoins serve different needs outside of the United States.

In addition to institutional purchases of Bitcoin, the report from Chainalysis also mentions that the use of US dollar stablecoins for savings, person-to-person transfers, and cross-border commercial payments is on the rise overseas.

The company attributes part of this difference to bank accessibility: Americans can already hold US dollars through their local bank accounts, while stablecoins provide people in other regions with a way to hold US-dollar denominated assets without the need for a US account.

Research indicates that the proportion of stablecoins in crypto activities in the United States is lower than in other regions, and this gap has continued to widen over several consecutive statistical periods. The report describes the use of Bitcoin in the U.S. as increasingly correlated with the demand for scarce value storage tools.

Bridgewater's head of digital asset research, Will Su, told researchers that interest in Bitcoin "as an alternative to currency" remains strong, and mentioned the rising government debt and spending.

Regarding stablecoins, the report suggests that their adoption overseas is associated with economic activities that are beneficial to American businesses and the federal government. The report evaluates that holding these tokens links the demand for digital dollars to the demand for U.S. government debt, and at the same time, these tokens also support payment activities outside of traditional banking channels.

The Fed's proposal sets reserve requirements and bank application criteria

In terms of regulation, President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act in 2025, establishing a federal framework for payment-style stablecoins, which includes reserve support and monthly reserve disclosure requirements.

In a report on September 24th, the Federal Reserve's proposed stablecoin reserve rules outlined how issuers within its regulatory scope will provide support for tokens, as well as how covered banks can apply through their subsidiaries to be approved for issuing stablecoins.

According to the Federal Reserve announcement, the first proposal will require full support with approved assets, which include short-term U.S. Treasury bills and certain other high-quality liquid assets. The draft will also establish capital requirements for credit risk and operational risk, risk management standards, as well as rules for regulated companies to hold stablecoin reserves.

The Federal Reserve stated that, according to the second proposal, covered banks are required to submit business plans, financial information, and other application materials. The draft also outlines procedures for appeals, hearings, and final application decisions, with a deadline for public comments set at 60 days after its publication in the Federal Register.