The recent pullback in Bitcoin has caused unease among many investors, but LookIntoBitcoin's Research and Analysis Director, Matt Crosby, is not worried. He stated that the on-chain data indicates that the bear market bottom "has basically already appeared," and that the next round of gains could be faster than most people expect.

The main basis for Crosby is an indicator known as realised cap HODL waves. This indicator tracks what proportion of the average buying cost of Bitcoin comes from investors who have held the currency for at least three months. According to him, when this proportion rises above 80%, it indicates that long-term holders have a firm grip on the market, and short-term speculation has receded. He calls this reading "a hallmark of bear market lows in Bitcoin's history," and this time is no exception.

Selling pressure has been exhausted.

Crosby described the recent market as a "truly dictionary-defined situation where sellers have been exhausted." Bitcoin had previously faced a series of negative factors:

• Coldcard Vulnerability exploited
• CLARITY Act Delayed again and then vetoed by the Senate
• Miners sell Bitcoin in order to transition to artificial intelligence
• Treasury Company Sells Holdings

Nevertheless, prices are still rising. The supply from long-term holders is also beginning to decrease, and Crosby interprets this as new funds entering the market to buy in.

He believes there are no signs of a overheated market. On the contrary, he describes the current situation as a healthy and heavily spot-driven rotation of funds, with capital flowing from stocks, bonds, and commodities towards Bitcoin.

Why might Bitcoin rise so quickly?

Crosby pointed out that Bitcoin has recently risen rapidly from $64,000 to $84,000. Since long-term holders control a large supply and rarely sell, according to his estimates, for every $1 of new capital entering the market, it adds about $6.20 to Bitcoin's market value. This means that even a small amount of capital flowing out of the artificial intelligence bubble or bond market could potentially drive prices up significantly.

The proportion of Bitcoin in global capital

At around $87,000, Bitcoin accounts for approximately 0.32% of the total global invested capital, which is lower than its historical high of nearly 0.5%. As the total global capital continues to grow, Crosby indicates:

• If it returns to its previous peak proportion, the price of Bitcoin would rise to around $134,000, which is higher than its record high of $126,000.
• If it accounts for 1% of the global capital, at the current level, that would be approximately $281,000 per unit. In 10 years, it could exceed $500,000.
• If it accounts for 3% of the global capital, its price could reach approximately $1.75 million within ten years.

Silver comparison: $400,000

Crosby The boldest comparison is to make between Bitcoin and silver. When silver hit its bottom in 2022, its market value was approximately $1 trillion; whereas Bitcoin's recent low point was around $1.1 trillion.

Subsequently, silver rose by about 593% over a period of 3.4 years. Since Bitcoin is traded around the clock and tends to move more rapidly, Crosby has adjusted this timeline to about 2.3 years. If Bitcoin were to replicate silver's increase during this period, then its price would reach approximately $400,000.

He stated that as of now, the correlation between Bitcoin and silver is about 90%. He admitted that this target might be somewhat optimistic, and he did not provide a precise peak value, but mentioned that the results obtained from global capital models are also close to this level, at around $390,000.

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