The price of Bitcoin has stabilized within a narrow range of $82,900 to $83,000, approaching a psychologically important support level. After a strong upward trend in the fall, this cryptocurrency has entered what technical analysts refer to as a "hard retest" phase—where the price returns to a previous breakout level to confirm whether the buying momentum is strong enough.
The results of this test will determine the trend of the cryptocurrency market for the rest of this year.
The current trend of Bitcoin perfectly reflects the macroeconomic patterns that dominate the global market. TechCharts renowned technical analyst Aksel Kibar pointed out: "Since May 2026, we have seen more backtests and hard backtests in global stock markets after they made breakthroughs."
How the Global Liquidity Shortage Transmits to the Crypto Market
In his view, the reason lies in the particularity of the current environment: due to "lack of global liquidity and momentum," major assets can no longer rise unimpeded. Nowadays, every strong rebound is accompanied by a deep technical pullback, and Kibar believes that "cryptocurrencies may be no different." This shortage of liquidity has forced a round of continuous upward movement to undergo a severe recalibration.
From the daily charts of BTC to USD, this trend exhibits a clear pattern:
- Summer Support: In July, after Bitcoin fell to $57,800, the market found its bottom and established a basis for an upward trend.
- Autumn Momentum: In September, Bitcoin broke through two resistance levels of $71,500 and $76,100 respectively.
- October test: The chart has now reached the $82,800 level. This analyst is directly pointing to this level, believing that “BTC may be undergoing one of the hard retests around $82,800.” If buyers can hold this position, it will become a springboard to challenge $90,000; otherwise, the asset could return to the consolidation range from summer.
The external macroeconomic environment also contributes to the cooling of the market. Investors are extremely cautious as they await the key meeting scheduled by the Federal Reserve of the United States for October 27th to 28th. The market expects the Fed to release more hawkish statements, and high interest rates may continue, which typically drives funds away from risky assets towards safer investments such as government bonds.
In this context, decentralized prediction platforms reflect a moderate level of skepticism: market participants believe that the probability of Bitcoin briefly falling below the psychological barrier of $80,000 is 63%.
However, there are no signs of panic or panicked selling on the charts. Although Bitcoin is currently about one-third lower than its historical high of $126,080 set in October 2025, large holders with longer holding periods are not in a hurry to liquidate their positions.
Kibar I have succinctly summarized market sentiment using “Still holding”. The current pullback is seen as a necessary technical respite, and the outcomes in the coming days will revolve around the level of $82,800.
