Ukraine's harvest season is shifting from wheat and barley to corn, soybeans, and sunflowers, and the farmer Oleksandr Chumak ( Oleksandr Chumak ) from the southern Odessa region is currently having a good harvest. Logically speaking, this should be good news.

But after 11 years of growing a variety of crops in the Odessa region in southern Ukraine, Chumak said he had had enough.

Warehousing facilities in both Ukraine and Russia are filled with millions of tons of agricultural products that were supposed to be shipped to Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa, but now they are trapped within the territories of the warring countries.

From summer to autumn, Russian drone and missile attacks on targets in the Black Sea intensified, making it impossible for commercial vessels to obtain insurance. Kiev's retaliatory strikes also hindered Russian exports, further squeezing global supply.

As deadly attacks in the Black Sea continue into October, and despite Turkey's intensified efforts to mediate an agreement in an attempt to alleviate global food security risks, the prospects for a ceasefire remain bleak.

Chiumak said that about 80% of his grain cannot be sold at a profitable price at the moment, and he no longer has any money left.

The sharp drop in domestic prices leaves farmers like him with little reason to sow for the 2027 crop in the coming months.

Andriy Dikun, chairman of the Ukrainian Agricultural Commission ( Andrii Dykun ), said: "It's very difficult for farmers because we need to pay taxes and land rent, but right now we can't do that since we can't sell anything."

"The only things we can still sell are rapeseed and sunflower seeds. But the quantity is still not enough... So if we don't make any profit today, then why bother planting at all?"

"If our inventory gets filled up, then doing any farming in spring would be meaningless, as it would just be a waste of time and money."

Ukraine's largest lending institution, PrivatBank ( PrivatBank ), informed CNBC that the bank issued 1.53 billion hryvnia (approximately 34.2 million US dollars) in working capital loans to agricultural enterprises between June and August, which is more than twice the 718 million hryvnia issued during the same period last year. Small and medium-sized producers account for 70% of its agricultural loan portfolio.

Yevgen Zaykhraev (Yevhen Zaihraiev), the person in charge of the corporate and small and medium-sized enterprise business at this state-owned bank, said: "Funds are actually still locked up in grain inventories, while farms still need to pay for ongoing operating costs and to raise funds for sowing in autumn and spring."

He stated via email: "We observe that customers have adopted different strategies. Some agricultural producers will sell their crops earlier, even if the prices are not ideal, in order to maintain sufficient operational liquidity. Others, especially those with storage capacity, will delay sales until more favorable market prices arise."

Zaykhraev pointed out that Ukraine's production of grains and oilseeds is expected to increase from 80 million tons this year to 85 million tons, but the inventory carried over from the previous season is putting pressure on Ukraine's storage infrastructure and logistics. These facilities include long plastic grain bags spread across the fields, as well as tall metal silos, which themselves are increasingly vulnerable to military strikes.

"We also see that agricultural producers are gradually adjusting their planting plans for next year, shifting towards oilseeds and niche crops, as the prices of these crops are less dependent on logistics costs," Zaykhraev added.

Farmer Qiumark stated that he would adopt the same strategy, significantly reducing the planting area next year. He will completely stop growing corn and barley and instead choose crops that require less fertilizer, which is also under pressure due to the global tightening of fertilizer supply after the US-Iran war.

Meanwhile, for Ukrainian farmers – those who have not yet been conscripted into service – the war with Russia is omnipresent. Chumak said over the phone, “We live and work in such a place where you or someone around you could be hit by a rocket or a drone at any time.”

"When we were sleeping in bed, the explosion occurred 300 to 1000 meters away."

Liberating inventory will 'quickly reverse the market'

Since Russia's full-scale invasion at the beginning of 2022, Ukraine's agricultural sector has been facing issues such as the takeover of farms, landmines, and a shortage of labor. International organizations have been trying to maintain export channels through various agreements, including the already collapsed Black Sea Initiative, as well as the politically controversial EU "Solidarity Corridor."

Today, the domestic situation in Ukraine and its impact on the global food chain have reached the most severe stage since the beginning of the war.

The United Nations states that in the years preceding the war, Ukraine and Russia together supplied over half of the world's sunflower oil, nearly one-fifth of the barley, and 14% of the wheat. Ukraine is also one of the largest corn-producing countries in the world, with China and the European Union being among its biggest buyers.

Ukraine's main agricultural exports usually pass through the Black Sea by about 90%. In August of this year, the total export of grains and beans was 981,000 tons, which is a decrease of about 58% compared to the same period last year.

Weaker conditions in other regions have exacerbated the risks. Europe is expected to face particularly poor corn harvests, and there is a need for more imports at a time when feed demand remains high. The corn crop in the United States is also showing signs of weakness.

Currently, better wheat and barley harvests in Canada, Australia, and Argentina, as well as bountiful harvests in the Middle East and North Africa, have alleviated the impact to some extent.

Expana Benoit Fayolle, Senior Manager of Grain and Oilseeds Analysis ( Benoit Fayaud ), stated that the ongoing sanctions have supported commodity prices in regions outside of Russia and Ukraine. However, if the Black Sea ports are reopened, it would release a large amount of cheap supply, which "could rapidly reverse the market with almost no warning."

He told CNBC that if an agreement to resume exports between Ukraine and Russia is reached, the prices of grains from other producing areas could fall by several dozen dollars. “Their inventories are so large that this will have a negative impact on the global market as a whole,” he added.

Fayyau stated that the prices of wheat, barley, oilseeds, and other products in Russia and Ukraine have dropped to such a low level that it has intensified the competition for alternative transportation routes via rail, road, and waterways.

But these alternative routes are “difficult for both countries and very slow,” he said.

Eastern European neighbors of Ukraine, such as Poland and Romania, are resisting efforts to allow grain to be transshipped through their countries—even if it is only temporarily—because they fear that an oversupply will destroy the demand for domestic crops.

Another route across the Danube River is affected by low water levels; a key bridge outside of Ukraine has also been damaged. Fayeau said that it is still possible to transport goods through the Baltic countries, or by land via Georgia to the Middle East and Central Asia, but these routes can only cover a small portion of the usual traffic volume.

Dikun from the Ukrainian Agricultural Committee emphasized that, in terms of price, there is no alternative to the Black Sea route.

He said, "Even for farmers on the western border of Ukraine, it is always cheaper to transport grain to other ports than to sell it to EU ports across the border, because for the farmers, selling through Black Sea ports yields much higher profits."

“So without a Black Sea port, it simply won’t work for us.”