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• Zcash and Monero were the two best-performing large-cap cryptocurrencies in the past 24 hours, while Bitcoin only rose by 0.59% and Ethereum rose by 0.34%.
• Zcash is still approximately 19% lower than its peak of $1,698 at the end of September. On September 30th, there was a capital outflow of $30.25 million from the grayscale Zcash ETF.
• Macroeconomic factors have kept the overall market stagnant: On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00%, followed by non-farm payroll additions in September of only 29,000 people, which was lower than the expected 84,000 people.

According to CoinGecko data, the total market capitalization of the entire market is slightly over $3 trillion, and it remained relatively stable throughout the day. The trends of the other 12 largest cryptocurrencies were also similar. Solana rose by 1.4%, XRP rose by 1.07%, while BNB fell by 0.41%, and Tron fell by 0.22%.

Most traditional cryptocurrencies have shown a flat trend, whereas privacy coins present a different scenario.

Zcash might be the most well-known privacy coin, which has seen a significant rise over the past year. Today, it increased by 3% and has somewhat recovered from its recent high of nearly $1,600. Meanwhile, Monero has risen by 2.14% in the past 24 hours, reaching $562.32, making privacy coins the most prominent sector of the day.

The daily chart shows that the trends of the two are not exactly the same. Zcash has risen by 2.62% since the opening of the candlestick chart on Binance today, indicating that this upward trend is still continuing. Monero, on the other hand, started a surge yesterday and continued to rise within the past 24 hours.

There is a reason for the overall sideways movement in the crypto market. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. Subsequently, the employment report for September revealed that only 29,000 new jobs were created, which was lower than the economists' forecast of 84,000, and the unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%.

According to CME FedWatch, after the release of these weak data, the probability of another interest rate hike in October has dropped to around 22%. The possibility that interest rates will not continue to rise is positive for risk assets. Therefore, the two factors of an interest rate hike in September and the decline in the probability of another hike largely cancel each other out – this is why the market has been trading sideways.

However, Bitcoin continues to show bullish momentum. Yesterday, it experienced its second "golden cross," where the 100-day exponential moving average broke above the 200-day moving average. It is currently still below the resistance level of $87,354. But even the most persistent bull market needs time to catch its breath.

However, regarding Zcash, there is a caveat here. A single-day increase does not necessarily indicate a reversal in trend. ZEC is still about 19% lower than its peak of $1,698 at the end of September, and a single day of buying orders is not enough to bridge this gap.

On October 1st, during trading hours, as a portion of the grayscale Zcash ETF fund flowed out in the amount of $30.25 million, Zcash tumbled to $1,333.50. Despite this outflow, since its launch on August 25th, the net inflow for this fund has still amounted to approximately $268 million.

Looking at the long term, Zcash has its own independent logic. Over the past 12 months, this token has appreciated by approximately 2,500%, and it still shows no signs of a significant trend reversal at present.

A cooling down does not go against the consistent characteristics of this token. Earlier this year, when the Ironwood forgery incident caused panic, ZEC fell by 38%, only to rebound above $1,600 later on. In comparison, the current decline from its September high is about 19%, which is not considered significant.

Monero is in a similar situation. XMR is currently about 11% lower than its September high of $632.86. Its market value is $10.57 billion, which is less than half of Zcash's market value of $23.18 billion.

From the daily chart perspective, both of these privacy coins are in a consolidation phase rather than a breakout. The daily price of Zcash is $1,372.69, and it is being held back below the resistance zone around $1,403.89; this resistance level is calculated based on the low of $451.75 and the high of $1,698. Today's high of $1,385 has not yet reached this resistance level. The 38.2% retracement level below that is at $1,221.93, which is the next point to watch.

Indicators with faster time frames are sending different signals for Monero: it has deeply entered an overbought zone, but its trend is more constrained, and it has been trading sideways since late September.

The author believes that in the short term, the levels worth paying attention to include: Bitcoin needs to break through $87,354, Zcash faces resistance above $1,403.89, while Monero needs to continue to hold above $558.69.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for reference only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.