A pullback in October could present buying opportunities before the next cycle high for Bitcoin, with Brandt anticipating that this high will be between $300,000 and $600,000. He is not optimistic about XRP and such "shitcoins."
Senior trader Peter Brandt once referred to October 4th as the day when the bear market for Bitcoin would end, but now he believes that the market has already proven him wrong ahead of time.
Brandt warned in July that prices could fall to the lower range of $40,000. At the time of that interview, the trading price of Bitcoin was close to $64,000, but by his most recent appearance, it had risen to nearly $85,000.
In retrospect, Bitcoin's drop to around $58,000 at the end of June may have marked the bottom of this cycle.
However, Brandt indicates that this does not rule out a sharp decline occurring first. He is watching for Bitcoin to possibly fall back to $65,000 or $66,000 at the beginning of October.
"Of course, one possibility is that there are too many people chasing the market now," he said, "they have accepted the idea that the low point of Bitcoin has already been reached, and they have increased their positions during this round of gains."
A single callback could potentially wash out these late buyers and provide investors with an opportunity to establish positions.
"We all know that Bitcoin won't rise in a straight line."
Brandt believes that Bitcoin could rise to $500,000 this round.
Brandt also raised his expectations for the next round of highs for Bitcoin, setting the range for the end of 2029 at $300,000 to $600,000, which is higher than the $250,000 to $300,000 range he proposed in July.
"This bull market cycle is very likely to reach $500,000," he said.
In his view, it is not impossible for Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030, but he does not require this goal to be achieved for his transaction to be considered a success. Brandt indicates that he has not invested all of the funds he had set aside for Bitcoin. He believes that as long as 70% of the funds remain in the market, it will be sufficient to participate in the 70% increase he expects to see by 2029.
“If by the end of 2029 Bitcoin is worth $350,000, I won’t be a believer in the $1 million prediction,” he said.
Bitcoin rebounded in the third quarter and broke through $80,000. Source: CoinMarketCap
The “explanations” for price fluctuations are often wrong.
Brandt is also wary of using headlines about the CLARITY legislation or other events to explain every price fluctuation. He pays more attention to the timing and rhythm of previous market cycles in order to predict what might happen next.
“Something happens in the market, and traders then need to fabricate a narrative. Most of the time, at least part of that narrative is incorrect,” he said. “Let the prices speak for themselves.”
His model suggests that the halving time is roughly located at the midpoint between the low point of a bear market and the next high point. He expects the upward trend to accelerate in its final stages, with the last three to four months possibly contributing about 30% to the total increase.
The prediction of Brandt is that a new bull market has begun, and the historical cycle patterns of Bitcoin are still generally valid. For him, whether Bitcoin can reach $100,000 by the end of the year is not as important as finding the next buying opportunity with controllable risk.
“It doesn’t matter,” he said, “I think what’s more important is whether we can identify the next tradable point where we can take on a measurable risk.”
Brandt questions the investment attractiveness of XRP
Brandt is known for being skeptical about many altcoins. He stated that the logic behind investors putting their money into “stupid coins” like XRP is often flawed.
In his view, the use of XRP in payments, as well as the cooperative relationship between Ripple and banks, does not automatically make it a successful investment.
“Just because something has a transactional function, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s more valuable,” he said, comparing it to the US dollar.
US dollars can be used for payment, but people do not buy US dollars because they expect their transactional use to drive up their value.
His attitude towards Ethereum and Solana is more moderate; he believes they can be included in the crypto asset allocation he recommends, alongside Bitcoin. As for chasing the next new token, he holds a different view.
"I believe trading is a marathon, not a sprint."
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