September 29th (Monday) Outlook

Bitcoin BTC is trading at $84,117.13 and is doing what seemed unimaginable at the beginning of this quarter and earlier this year: outperforming gold as yields rise and weaken gold, and its price trend also indicates a potential push towards $100,000.

On Monday, as the yields on longer-term U.S. Treasury bonds rose to their highest level since 2007, driving up the U.S. Dollar Index, gold fell by nearly 4%. Since September 9th, DXY has risen by 2.7% from 98.78 to near 101.50.

However, Bitcoin fell by only 1% on Monday, briefly dropping to near $82,500 before rebounding to around $84,000 at the time of writing.

This resilience is not only reflected in the price performance of the past 24 hours. BTC has risen by more than 40% this quarter, leaving gold, the S&P 500 index, and all other major assets far behind.

From the charts, the trend of Bitcoin is even more impressive. Although the upward momentum has weakened, the price has still held steady in the $80,000 range and remains above the high point from May.

This also provides a clue that it may rise to over $100,000 (see today's signal).

Fidelity's Global Macroeconomics Head, Jurrien Timmer, stated that Bitcoin breaking through $80,000 triggered a "double bottom breakout" technical pattern, confirming a bullish trend and opening the door for a rebound to $100,000.

"Bitcoin is particularly interesting as it challenges the key resistance level of 80k. If it breaks through, it will confirm a double-bottom pattern, with a target of 100K," Timmer wrote on X on Friday.

The double-bottom pattern looks like the letter “W” on a price chart. The price first falls to a low point, then rebounds and drops back to roughly the same level, before rising again. The two low points indicate that buyers have intervened at that price twice. The high point in the middle of the “W” serves as a resistance level. If the price breaks through upwards, it may suggest that the selling pressure has been exhausted, and a new upward trend could be forming.

The chart from Timmer shows that Bitcoin's two lows this year were 60,033 US dollars and 57,742 US dollars respectively, with a high point in between of nearly 82,800 US dollars.

However, chart patterns do not guarantee the outcome. Breakouts often fail, and prices can quickly fall back, trapping buyers who tried to catch the rise.

Option positions can also reverse rapidly with changes in market trends. Stay vigilant!

For more analysis on today's trends in altcoins and derivatives, please refer to Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of events this week, please see CoinDesk under Crypto Week Ahead.

Analysts believe that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds could rise to 6%. Bitcoin bulls don't need to panic ( CoinDesk )The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which affects the cost of borrowing for the U.S. economy, has been rising for several months in a row. Some analysts now believe it could rise to 6%, a level not seen since 2000. This might sound like bad news for Bitcoin, but that's not necessarily the case.

Bitcoin is on track to break an important record that has lasted for a decade, with its gains expanding in September ( CoinDesk )Since 2013, every time there has been a rise in August, there has been a fall in September. With only two trading days left this month, if there is a final upward closure, it will break this pattern and allow Bitcoin to experience three consecutive months of growth from July to September.

The United States and Iran hold separate mediation talks as Middle East oil exports rise to wartime levels ( CNBC )It is reported that U.S. and Iranian officials held indirect talks with mediators on Monday to restart efforts to end a seven-month war; meanwhile, Tehran is urging a response to the revised ceasefire framework, while Middle East crude oil exports have risen to their highest level since the conflict began.

Anthropic warns in the IPO document that AI may pose a "survival risk" to humanity (Reuters)Anthropic warns potential investors that advancing AI could pose a "catastrophic or existential risk" to humanity, which is an unusual warning from a company that attempts to profit from the same technology.

Today's Signal

The chart displays the weekly price fluctuations of Bitcoin in the form of candlestick charts.

The price recently broke above $82,000, confirming the double-bottom breakout mentioned by Timmer. This pattern indicates that the downward trend has ended, and a new bull market is on its way.

Real-time updates:Bitcoin rebounds above $84,000, ETF attracts $30 million in funds, 1 hour ago

3 Blockchain.com plans to raise $500 million this year; the valuation could reach up to $6 billion. 1 hour ago...

4 With the increase in September expanding, Bitcoin is on track to break an important record that has lasted for a decade. Two hours ago...

5 Analysts believe that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds could rise to 6%. Bitcoin bulls don't need to panic, just 2 hours ago.

6 Near Intents prevented Bitget hackers from transferring 50 million US dollars in the exchange. What happened? 5 hours ago.

7 Anthropic plans to invest $518 billion in infrastructure based on AI. IPO perpetual contracts remained almost unchanged until 6 hours ago.

8 Bitcoin remains above $83,000; ZEC has fallen by 12%, and oil prices have risen again, 7 hours ago.

9 Goldman Sachs introduces a $100 billion Treasury fund into the infrastructure of crypto institutions, 17 hours ago

10 The rush to re-pledge has ended, and there is almost no profit to be made from the top protocols. 19 hours ago...

APAC Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia-Pacific Region

As stablecoins enter the regulated financial system, the Asia-Pacific region is becoming a key testing ground. This report outlines the regulations in the region, the use cases, as well as the role of RLUSD.

Why it's important:As stablecoins enter the regulated financial system, the Asia-Pacific region is becoming a key testing ground. This report outlines the regulations in the region, the use cases, as well as the role of RLUSD.

Although traders are not panicked, the sentiment in the crypto market is cooling down.

Bitcoin holders are cashing out, but the methods are different from those at previous market peaks.

Litecoin tokens are experiencing a highlight period due to a surge in network activity.

Real-time update: Bitcoin rebounds above $84,000, ETF attracts $30 million

Blockchain.com plans to raise $500 million this year, with a valuation that could reach up to $6 billion.