Morgan Stanley will participate in the NEXTPredict summit to be held in New York in October as a strategic partner and will host a discussion focused on institutional capital. This is a rare public participation by a major Wall Street firm in a market forecasting event, indicating that this sector is trying to attract a wider range of institutional funds.

Morgan Stanley publicly participates

The summit is scheduled to take place from October 22nd to 23rd. The organizer, NEXT.io, stated that Morgan Stanley is the first bank to support such events under its public brand identity. At that time, Stephen Grambling, the head of Morgan Stanley's US Gaming, Hotels, and Leisure Research department, will moderate the relevant sessions.

The key points of discussion include why institutions are interested in predicting markets, as well as what obstacles still exist in the current market structure, risks, and entry barriers. Grambling indicates that whether institutions will actually participate depends on whether the market opportunities, trading structures, and risks are clear enough.

Industry valuations continue to rise

The market has been heating up continuously over the past year, and a direct indicator of this is the rapid increase in valuations. Reports mention that Kalshi's valuation after its latest financing is said to have reached $40 billion, while Polymarket's valuation in its most recent round of financing is $20 billion. As a comparable company in the public market, DraftKings currently has a market value of about $13 billion.

• Kalshi Said to be valued at $40 billion
• Polymarket New round of valuation: $20 billion
• DraftKings With a market value of approximately $13 billion

Co-founder of the organizer, Pierre Lindh, believes that these valuations reflect not what investors predict the market to look like today, but rather the form it may evolve into in the future. Currently, about 90% of liquidity and trading volume are still concentrated in sports contracts, and many users also regard such platforms as another entry point for sports betting.

Institutions are still awaiting clearer regulatory guidelines.

Lindh believes that if the industry is to support the current valuations, it cannot remain confined to the sports sector alone. The market is presenting investors with a different logic of growth: predicting that the market may become more institutionalized in the future, helping banks or enterprises to hedge against risks that traditional markets find difficult to cover.

However, large financial institutions have not yet entered on a large scale, and the core reason remains that the regulatory environment is not yet fully clear. Lindh indicates that many banks are still waiting for the results of lawsuits at the state level in the United States, hoping to decide whether to proceed with related business once the rules become clearer.

Morgan Stanley has previously been in contact with this sector. The firm participated in the $1 billion Series F financing of Kalshi in May this year, at which time the exchange was valued at $22 billion. In April, Morgan Stanley’s wealth management department also released a report discussing market forecasts; in August, its subsidiary Counterpoint Global analyzed over 72 million Kalshi transactions, concluding that the contract prices were generally in good agreement with the final outcomes.