Ethereum quickly fell back after briefly reaching $2,600, dropping to around $2,475 on September 15, with a 2% decline over 24 hours. This reversal brought the price back below $2,500 and back into the range of fluctuations since late August. What the market is currently more concerned about is that with two American events approaching, short-term volatility may continue to increase.
Re-test the support below after returning.
From a 4-hour trend perspective, ETH has fallen below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 2509.64 USD. The first support level below that is around 2469.41 USD, and the current price is already close to this level. If it continues to lose this support, the market will further focus on the intraday low area around 2450 USD.
The resistance above is concentrated around $2,550, which corresponds to the upper band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands. Only if the price reclaims its position above the middle band will there be a chance to test this range again and attempt a rebound towards around $2,600.
The daily momentum is also weakening. MACD is still within the positive range, but it has fallen below the signal line, and the bar chart has turned negative, indicating that the upward momentum since August is weakening. At the same time, the reading for ADX is 17.73, suggesting that the current trend strength is weak, and prices are more likely to remain within a range of fluctuations, although intraday volatility will be more pronounced.
Intense liquidation around $2,450
The CoinGlass one-week settlement heat map shows that in the range of $2,450 to $2,470 below ETH, there are a significant number of leveraged positions concentrated. Once the price continues to fall below this range, forced liquidations may further amplify volatility.
Deeper liquidity is concentrated in the range of $2,390 to $2,410. If this current range is lost and there is an increase in passive liquidations of long positions, prices may continue to move towards this area.
At the same time, there is also a level of liquidity in the range of $2535 to $2580, and there are even more pronounced clearing-intensive areas around $2630 and $2650. This means that if ETH reclaims the $2550 level, short covering could push prices to test above $2600 again.
From a larger perspective, the daily 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of $2253.61 remains a major structural support, while a higher resistance level is around $2833.75. However, before that, ETH still needs to break through the recent pressure zone of $2550 to $2600 first.
The Fed and legislative voting to suppress risk appetite
Cautious sentiment in the market is related to two American events. The first is that the Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision, and the second is that the U.S. Senate will conduct a procedural vote on CLARITY Act. Traders generally reduce their leverage and risk exposure before these events are resolved.
Some analysts say that after a brief surge, ETH quickly fell back, reflecting that the market first cleared its short positions and then squeezed out the long positions that were chasing gains. If CLARITY Act does not progress as expected, prices may first face an additional round of pressure, after which the market's focus will shift to the Federal Reserve meeting.
Reuters, citing data from CME FedWatch, reports that the market's expectation probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16 exceeds 90%. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields, the attractiveness of traditional fixed-income assets increases, which also suppresses demand for risk assets. For ETH, until the outcomes of these two events are clear, the nearby clearing range may still become a trigger point for amplified short-term volatility.
