Foreign media believes that the changes in macroeconomic expectations after the Jackson Hole Conference are putting new pressure on Bitcoin. The article mentions that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized inflation risks in his speech on August 28, prompting the market to re-evaluate the subsequent interest rate path, and the US dollar also strengthened accordingly.

September interest rate hike expectations are heating up

The article cites data from CME FedWatch stating that the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in September 2026 is close to 60%. Against this backdrop, risky assets face higher financing costs and a tighter liquidity environment, and Bitcoin's previous rebound is also considered to be more likely to reverse.

Bitcoin's rebound was driven by two factors.

It is mentioned in the text that Bitcoin previously rose to around $80,000, driven mainly by two factors. First, Trump held an event on cryptocurrency at the White House, during which he stated that the United States planned to purchase a large amount of Bitcoin and other crypto assets, which boosted market sentiment. Second, the U.S. Treasury Department expanded its treasury bond repurchases, which was seen as releasing more liquidity into the market, and some of that funds may have flowed into the crypto market.

However, the article argues that such liquidity support may not be sustainable. As the U.S. Treasury Department continues to withdraw funds, market liquidity could tighten, and some of that capital might flow back from Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

The strengthening of the US dollar weakens the demand for safe-haven assets.

The article also points out that a stronger dollar may also suppress the performance of Bitcoin. The logic is that when the dollar remains strong, investors' demand for alternative assets such as Bitcoin and gold may decline, as these assets are often seen by some funds as tools to hedge against a weakening dollar.

Based on the above factors, the article suggests that if expectations for interest rate hikes continue to rise, coupled with a marginal tightening of fiscal liquidity, the price of Bitcoin could fall below $70,000 again.

• The probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in September is close to 60%.
• Bitcoin once rose to around $80,000
• Article Judgment: The $70,000 Mark May Be Tested Again