The Russian compliant cryptocurrency trading market is set to launch soon. SberCIB Investment Research, under the Russian Savings Bank, estimates that the transaction volume in the first year of operation of the new market could range between 3.5 and 4 trillion rubles, which is approximately 46.4 billion US dollars when converted at the exchange rates mentioned in the text.
In the first year, it will only cover about 20% of the existing trading volume.
This forecast is based on a relatively conservative assumption: currently, only a portion of Russian crypto transactions will transition to licensed markets. Vice Chairman of the Savings Bank of Russia, Anatoly Popov, stated that the current scale of crypto transactions in Russia is approximately 50 billion rubles per day, which amounts to about 18 trillion rubles annually.
SberCIB It is estimated that approximately 20% of trading activities in the first year will migrate to compliant platforms. Therefore, the upper limit for transaction volume in the first year is set at within 4 trillion rubles, rather than the "at least reach" level mentioned in some secondary reports.
- First-year forecast range: 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles
- Forecast for 2028: 4.75 trillion to 5.25 trillion rubles
- 2029 forecast: approximately 7.5 trillion rubles
New regulations will be implemented starting from September, setting a purchase limit for retail investors
The Russian compliance framework for encrypted transactions will come into effect on September 1, 2026. According to the arrangements of the Russian Central Bank, both qualified and unqualified investors will be able to participate in encrypted transactions through approved intermediaries.
However, ordinary investors are required to pass a knowledge test before they can purchase eligible crypto assets. After passing the test, non-qualified investors are limited to an annual purchase amount of 300,000 rubles per intermediary institution, which is approximately equivalent to 3,800 US dollars.
Qualified investors also need to complete the test, but they are not subject to the same maximum amount limit. The actual range of tradable products will also depend on the services provided by intermediary institutions and subsequent supporting rules.
BTC, ETH and USDT have made it to the preliminary list.
Currently, the list of assets eligible for organized trading that ordinary Russian investors can participate in includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT. However, this list is still subject to final regulatory decisions, which does not mean that all intermediaries will immediately offer these three types of assets for trading.
The current Russian framework also clearly stipulates that cryptocurrencies are still not allowed to be used for the payment of ordinary goods and services within the country. In other words, the new system allows for regulated investment and trading activities, but does not permit their use in everyday payments.
The license transition period is extended until July 2027.
Existing cryptocurrency trading service providers may continue to operate during the transition period, but they must complete registration by July 1, 2027. This means that a complete supply may not be quickly established in the early stages of the new market, and the transaction volume in the first year will also be affected by the number of platforms entering the market.
The Russian Savings Bank also plans to launch infrastructure for encrypted transactions, custody, and digital asset management by December 1, 2026. However, details such as customer eligibility, supported cryptocurrencies, fees, and withdrawal rules have not yet been finalized.
