After Morgan Stanley updated its forecasts for SpaceX, Musk provided a more aggressive revenue timeline on X. He stated that his "most likely judgment" is that SpaceX will achieve revenues of about $3.5 trillion in 2033, which is about 7 years earlier than the 2040 forecast estimated by Morgan Stanley's model.
Investment banks update valuations and revenue forecasts
This round of discussion originated from a research note by Morgan Stanley regarding SpaceX's expansion plan in Louisiana. Analyst Adam Jonas maintains a 'buy' rating on SpaceX and states that the company's valuation remains attractive.
Morgan Stanley previously estimated that SpaceX would be valued at around $330 billion by 2030 and projected that its valuation could rise to $3.4 trillion by 2040. In their latest discussions, the firm also set the timeline for annual revenue to reach $3.5 trillion around 2040, mainly based on the substantial growth of its launch business.
- Morgan Stanley predicts: Reaching $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by around 2040
- Elon Musk's prediction: Reaching the same revenue level around 2033
- Time difference between the two: about 7 years
Louisiana project supports capacity expansion
This week, SpaceX announced a new spaceport project located in Southern Louisiana, USA, known as Starbase Louisiana. According to the information provided, the project is estimated to cost around 100 billion US dollars and aims to enhance the company's future launch capabilities, as well as to support the expansion of the Starship system.
Morgan Stanley believes that this new base is expected to support launches into polar and sun-synchronous orbits, further complementing the existing launch network of SpaceX. As the layout of the launch site expands, the capacity of SpaceX for commercial launches and orbital missions is also likely to continue to increase in the future.
Computing power plan to be increased synchronously
In addition to its launch services, the article also mentions that SpaceX is extending in the directions of AI and orbital calculations. The company plans to increase its computing power from over 2 GW by the end of 2026 to approximately 10 GW by 2027.
This expansion means that the growth narrative of SpaceX is no longer solely focused on rocket launches and satellite networks. At least based on the information disclosed so far, launch infrastructure, investment in computing power, and new business strategies are all being included in the company's next phase of expansion plans.
